Economic Growth Or Bottom &Nbsp; The Two Quarter Of The Bottom Of The Market To Consolidate The Market?

After this week,

Can the economy see bottom?

As early as the beginning of 2012, domestic institutions uniformly expected that the Chinese economy would be bottomed out in the second quarter of 2012.

When the second quarter approached, some industry experts put forward different views.

Zhong Wei, director of the financial research center of Beijing Normal University, pointed out that if the domestic macroeconomic regulation and control in the second quarter is not relaxed, the downward trend of China's economic growth will continue, and the growth rate in the third quarter may continue to slow down.

At present, China's monetary policy is still relatively tight. In the first two months, the bank's new loans were lower than expected. Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has only lowered the deposit reserve ratio once, which is far from the market expectations.

Zhong Wei believes that the three major factors that support China's stock market rebound since the beginning of the year are the warming of the external market, the strong expectation of policy easing and the self repair of valuation.

But in the second quarter, the impact of the external stock market is weakening, and policy easing expectations are likely to fail, and the future capital market adjustment time may exceed expectations.

Bao Qing, an analyst at Donghai securities, said that the HSBC's March purchasing managers' index preview value was 48.1, the lowest in nearly 4 months.

The market has been affected by the anticipation of the first quarter of the first quarter and the first quarter of the second quarter.

But Bao Qing also pointed out that "the probability of the economy bottoming out in the second quarter is still small.

Since March and April is the focus of the project commencement period, construction projects, including centralized investment in projects, may drive the economy to the bottom.

and

Policy support is still in progress.

Favorable policies in the first quarter provided great support for the rebound of A shares. The industry believes that after the second quarter, policy support will still exist.

"In view of the continued relaxation of the current policy, we are more confident that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index will have a 17.4% and 10.1% profit growth forecast from 2011 to 2012, and we will predict a 16.6% increase in 2013 based on the top-down model."

Wang Hanfeng, an analyst at Gao Hua Securities, said: "as inflation continues to fall, the policy is expected to be more relaxed and liquidity should continue to improve gradually, although the new round of relaxation in the developed economies may increase inflationary pressures in the medium term of China."

However, in the short term of the second quarter, before more powerful policies emerge, the market will pay more attention to whether the economy can see the bottom.

Bao Qing pointed out that the bottom of the market will be established with the establishment of the economic base, and not for the period of 4 trillion yuan investment in 2008.

"The key to the problem is that we do not have the" strong stimulus policy "at that time, which makes the market appear strong optimistic expectations, and then push the market up.

Bao Qing stressed, "we believe that the market will continue to appear in the short term adjustment pattern, waiting for the clear signal of the bottom of the economy."

Consumer stocks are preferred

In the second quarter of the industry configuration, a number of institutions recommend investors to turn their attention.

Wang Hanfeng said that Gao Hua Securities is optimistic about the combination of domestic demand cyclical stocks (coal, brokerage and insurance) and consumer cyclical stocks (automobiles, household appliances, retail and so on), and continues to lower the defensive industries (telecommunications / utilities) and some of the basic industries are still weak cyclical industries (steel and chemical industry).

In the report, Shenyang Wanguo suggests that investors can grasp four structural opportunities in the second quarter: consumption, oil price drive, central blue chip and big circulation.

Shenyang Wanguo pointed out that if the inflation rate of the second quarter is lower than expected and inflation expectations are renewed, oil prices will drive investment opportunities in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, chemical fertilizers and pesticides. Policy guidance, stable performance, low valuation and fund allocation will enable a number of blue chips to be favored by the market.