Analysis And Forecast Of Textile Industry Operation Situation This Year

　　 I. Basic operation

(1) steady growth in production and decline in garment production. In 2012 1-2, textile enterprises above Designated Size Industrial sales value 729 billion 700 million yuan, an increase of 13.2% over the same period last year. Industrial added value An increase of 12.6% over the same period. Yarn production 4 million 440 thousand tons, an increase of 12.5% over the same period; cloth production 9 billion meters, an increase of 15.3% over the same period; chemical fiber production 5 million 720 thousand tons, an increase of 15.3% over the same period; clothing output 3 billion 800 million, down 4.9% over the same period, of which the output of woven garments decreased by 2.4% over the same period, and the output of knitted garments decreased by 7.5% over the same period last year.

(two) exports have declined slightly and domestic sales growth has slowed down. In the 1-2 month of 2012, China's textile and apparel exports were US $31 billion 200 million, down 2.6% from the same period last year, of which textile exports decreased by 2.6% and clothing exports dropped by 2.5%. In 1-2 months, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats and needle textiles in Enterprises above designated size were 172 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 9.4 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.

(three) profit Some have come down, and losses have increased rapidly. In the 1-2 month of 2012, the main business income of textile enterprises above designated size was 726 billion 200 million yuan, an increase of 19.6% over the same period last year, and the total profit was 33 billion 400 million yuan, down 2.3% from the same period last year. Among them, the profit of cotton spinning processing industry dropped 5.1% compared with the same period last year, and the profit of chemical fiber manufacturing industry dropped 52.4% compared with the same period last year. In 1-2 months, the number of loss making enterprises in textile enterprises above designated size increased by 35.5% compared to the same period last year, and the total deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 95.9% over the same period last year. Among them, the number of loss making enterprises in chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 91.1% compared to the same period last year, and the total deficit of loss making enterprises increased by 404.3% over the same period last year.

　　 Two, the main problems facing

(1) the decrease in international market demand affects export growth. The European debt crisis continues to escalate, and the instability and uncertainty of the world economic recovery increase. As the main body of the international market, the developed economies such as the United States and Europe have not recovered well, the unemployment rate remains high and consumer confidence is low. These factors restrict the demand of developed economies for China's textile and clothing products. In 1-2 months, China's textile and clothing exports to the EU decreased by 12.7% compared with the same period last year. Exports to Canada, Australia, South Korea, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan and other developed countries and regions also declined year-on-year. Although exports to the US and Japan have increased, their growth rates have dropped by 0.8 and 6.4 percentage points respectively.

(two) the difference between inside and outside cotton prices is great, which affects the international competitiveness of the textile industry. Since the beginning of this year, cotton prices have been maintained at around 19500 yuan / ton, about 3000 yuan / ton higher than imported cotton prices. Inside and outside cotton Spread This not only increases the burden of cotton spinning enterprises, but also reduces the competitive advantage of the textile industry in the international market. In 1-2 months, the price of imported cotton yarn decreased by 15.1%, the number of imported cotton yarn increased by 26.2%, while the number of exported cotton yarn decreased by 19.3% compared with that of the international cotton price. The number of exported cotton garments decreased by 16.2% over the same period last year.

(three) financing It is difficult and expensive to raise funds. The textile industry with a large number of small and medium enterprises faces not only financing difficulties, but also the problem of financing. Most textile small and medium enterprises have poor financing channels, so it is difficult to get credit support. Enterprises that are supported by credit have to face up to the problem of floating interest rate, acceptance of bills of exchange, difficulty in obtaining loans in full and short loan period. The interest rate that enterprises ultimately bear is generally 10%-30% higher than the benchmark interest rate.

　　 Three, judgement of trend in the first half of 2012

Although the current problem is more serious, with the support of national policies, the textile industry can continuously improve its ability to resist risks and labor productivity through structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, and the industry can still maintain steady development. In February 2012, the sales value of textile industry increased by 28.3% compared with the same period last year, and the value of export delivery increased by 15.9% compared to the same period last year. The industrial added value increased by 25.1% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the textile industry will continue to maintain steady growth in March, and exports are expected to rebound. With the support of the domestic market growth and the slow recovery of the international market, production, sales and export in the first half of the year are expected to remain relatively stable.