Expert Interpretation Of Latest Domestic And Foreign Macroeconomic And Textile Industry Data

　　 Domestic demand is still the primary support and the three major terminals are positive.

Public consumption growth in rural areas and cities is still stable.

Emerging network marketing channels show good growth

Under the macro background of building a well-off society in an all-round way, there is no shortage of space in the domestic demand market. However, if enterprises want to find their own niche targets in complex and diversified markets, they can truly share the dividends of the growth of the domestic demand market. Perhaps products for mass consumption are not high-end, but they do not mean that enterprises can not go out enough high-end development routes.

Since 2013, the consumption of clothing and domestic consumption in China has remained stable. Spin Play a primary supporting role in the development of the industry. Among them, retail enterprises above Designated Size clothing shoes The retail sales of cap and needle textiles increased by 11.9% over the same period of 1~10 months, although the growth rate slowed down 6 percentage points over the same period last year, but increased 0.8 percentage points compared with 1~5 months this year. In order to meet the demand for food, clothing and daily use, the retail sales below the main limit increased by 14.8%, and continued to maintain a growth rate of nearly 3 percentage points above those above the quota level, indicating that the low-end mass consumer market in rural areas and towns remained stable. The emerging network marketing channels continue to show good growth and play a positive role in promoting the steady growth of domestic demand consumption.

In the past two years, with the domestic demand market passing through the initial consumption and power release cycle, and gradually entering the stage of steady growth, the market competition has been continuously improved, so that many textile enterprises do not feel as good as they used to be for the domestic demand market. But from the perspective of development trend, no matter now or in the next few years, our domestic demand market is undoubtedly the most dynamic and potential consumer market in the world, and it is also the fundamental driving force for the development of the textile industry.

At present, the most potential development space for small and medium-sized cities and the rural and rural areas to transfer the population consumption potential is still undeveloped. Cheap and cheap products and convenient channels are the key to start the demand. The high income group in cities is still the most consumptive group. The key is how to find a differentiated development path in the fierce competition with many international brands.

　 　 Market demand and technological innovation drive new growth points

Industrial textiles boost textile industry chain

Although the industry textile industry is still in the rising cycle, some potential structural risks such as conventional product scale and market application development can not be ignored. In the course of the development of traditional textile industry, homogeneity duplication, disconnection between supply and demand, and so on, have always been the lesson of the past. Structural optimization is always the theme. Core competitiveness is the most fundamental pursuit.

In recent years, industrial textiles have become more prominent in the new economic growth point of the textile industry chain. In the context of continued tense external situation, industrial textiles have maintained a steady and rapid development trend. Since 2013, 8% has almost become the upper limit of the output growth of textile products, but the output of nonwoven fabrics has broken through this limit, and the growth rate has reached 13.1% in 1~10 months. In the 1~9 month, the main business income of industrial textiles manufacturers above designated size increased by 16.3% compared to the same period last year, which is 4.6 percentage points higher than that of the whole industry.

The textile industry continues to achieve rapid growth, driven by the dual driving forces of market demand and technological innovation. In addition, due to the variety of industrial textiles, the strong difference, and the late development of the industry chain, the industry has not yet reached the stage of full competition, and the benefit space is relatively more secure.

The industrial textile industry as a new growth point of the industrial chain is not only limited to stimulating the economic growth of the industry, but more importantly, it promotes the overall upgrading of the whole industry chain. Efforts to improve the development of industrial textiles will promote the development and application of high-tech fibers and the improvement of post finishing technology, accelerate the innovation and development of the equipment manufacturing industry, and establish a technology intensive, innovative driven, more sustainable and sustainable development framework in the industrial chain.

　　 Backbone enterprises contribute more to the economic growth of the industry

Emphasizing the combination of self development and external innovation conditions

A large number of backbone enterprises create most of the income of the industry, which are common in all aspects of the textile industry chain. Each enterprise's development foundation is different, and the internal resource allocation structure is different. It is difficult to summarize briefly what type of enterprise has more vitality. But one thing is certain: it is a permanent solution to closely integrate enterprise development with market demand and external innovation conditions.

The difference of development level between enterprises is increasing, which is an important development feature of textile industry in recent years. The development advantages of backbone enterprises are more prominent, the contribution and driving effect on the whole industry's economic growth has been continuously enhanced, and the degree of industrial local concentration has been enhanced, which indicates that new progress has been made in the optimization and adjustment of industrial organization structure.

In the first three quarters of 2013, the number of enterprises in China's home textile industry association focused on more than 190 enterprises, whose profit margins exceeded the 5.3% average level of the home textile industry accounted for 35%, while the total profit accounted for 80%. Compared with all the above scale home textile enterprises, these enterprises account for less than 4% of the total number of enterprises, and the total profit accounts for more than 1/4. This minority backbone enterprise creates most of the income of the industry, and it is common in all aspects of the textile industry chain.

In fact, there are significant differences in the development of backbone enterprises themselves. Take the industry chain and supply chain integration development path and pursue the scale benefit; choose the specialized, refined and special development mode, and strive to expand the profit margins. We should attach importance to manufacturing entity investment, constantly explore breakthroughs in the field of technological innovation and precision manufacturing, and focus on light assets operation, focus on rapid response capability building and branding development. No matter what type of enterprises, only by combining their own development with market demand and external innovation conditions is a permanent solution.

　　 Central and western economic development revolves around local characteristic resources

Industrial layout is most effective in central city business district.

According to the current conditions, the central region is more convenient to form industrial chain collaboration relationship with the eastern region. Under the condition that the industrial system and core competitiveness have not yet been fully established, downstream clothing and home textile products are relatively reasonable industrial chain foothold. Based on this, the establishment of an industrial system to the upstream will have more market driving power than the downward trend from the upstream of the industrial chain.

In the mid and late 11th Five-Year, the trend of textile industry's increasing layout in the central and western regions became more and more obvious. Its follow-up development results have been appearing in recent years. In the first three quarters of this year, the main business income of textile enterprises above Designated Size in 5 provinces such as Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan increased by 15.1% over the same period. The main business income of textile enterprises above Designated Size in Sichuan and Shaanxi provinces in the western region increased by 16.3% compared with the same period last year, while the growth rate of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Shandong and Shandong 5 provinces in the East was only 11%, and the textile industry in the mainland showed a good growth.

The industrial layout will produce a general problem like "orange producing Huaibei". Many factors such as industry matching, factor supply, local demand, infrastructure and so on may all become the constraints of the development of different industries. At least in this stage, not all links and all types of enterprises in the industrial chain can find suitable living space in the Midwest. We must accurately understand and grasp the characteristics of economic laws in the industrial development environment, so that we can find the right layout method in the right place and achieve a truly efficient layout development. In recent two years, the rapid development of textile industry in Hubei and Jiangxi is closely related to the terminal layout system. The industrial layout that focuses on domestic demand is still most effective around the central and western city commercial circles in the central and western regions. The development of new industrial clusters in Sichuan and Shaanxi has such characteristics. The establishment of a relatively independent characteristic industrial system around the local characteristic resources is always an important part of the development of the textile industry in the central and western regions.

　 Adjustment of industrial structure and steady improvement of operation quality

The terminal of industrial chain should deal with outstanding competitive power in the market.

The operation quality of the industry chain terminal industry is better, and the total assets turnover rate, turnover rate of finished products and sales profit rate of clothing and home textile industry are obviously better than that of the whole industry. The chemical fiber industry at the front of the industrial chain is still in a downward cycle, the quality of operation is relatively low, the inventory pressure of enterprises is more prominent, and the link between production and market needs to be further straightened out.

The adjustment of industrial structure and the steady improvement of operation quality are the important foundation for the textile industry to achieve stable operation in complex external environment this year. Statistics show that in 2013 1~9, the total assets turnover rate of textile enterprises above designated size increased by 1.7% compared with the same period last year, indicating that the operation efficiency of enterprises has been improved, the turnover rate of finished products has increased by 4.3%, the market reaction ability of enterprises has been strengthened, the proportion of three fees has decreased 0.03 percentage points year-on-year, and the management level has improved; the sales profit margin is 4.7%, up 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, and the profitability of enterprises has increased slightly. The operation quality of the industry chain terminal industry is better. The total assets turnover rate, finished product turnover rate and sales profit rate of the garment and home textile industry are obviously better than that of the whole industry level, and have improved further compared with the same period last year, indicating that the terminal industry is more capable of dealing with market competition. The chemical fiber industry at the front of the industrial chain is still in a downward cycle, and the quality of operation is generally low. Among them, the inventory pressure of enterprises is still outstanding, and the link between production and market needs to be further straightened out. However, the situation of enterprise cost control is better, and the profit situation has improved over the same period last year.

　　 The root of fetters

Production factors still need to break through, global game enters deep water

Cotton spinning enterprises can not extricate themselves from raw material difficulties in the short term

Industry labor supply tightening trend still exists.

A large number of state owned stocks lead to oversupply of cotton worldwide, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices can not be eliminated through market regulation. In the context of population structure and the changing employment preferences and professional qualities of the rural migrant workers in the new era, how to allocate human resources reasonably and maximize the labor force substitution is an important topic for textile enterprises.

The difference in cotton prices is still a pain in the textile industry. Since the beginning of this year, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton has always been maintained at more than 4000 yuan / ton, and the market competition and benefit pressure faced by cotton spinning enterprises still can not be alleviated. The import of cotton yarn has increased greatly. By the end of September, the import volume has exceeded the level of last year.

Although there has been news of the recent withdrawal of storage and partial pilot planting subsidies in 2014, cotton storage and storage in 2013 is advancing, and by the end of next year, the surplus of the state reserve stock is expected to reach about 12 million tons. A large number of state reserve stocks will lead to oversupply of cotton throughout the world, and there will still be no room for international cotton prices to rise. And domestic dumping and storage policy will continue to dominate domestic cotton supply and price. In the short run, cotton spinning enterprises will not be able to really extricate themselves from the predicament of raw materials.

Textile industry labor supply tightening trend still exists, employment prices continue to rise. In the first three quarters, the average per capita income of migrant workers increased by 13% over the same period of last year, and estimated that the employment price of textile industry will increase by 10% to 15% throughout the whole year.

　　 International capital backflow slows down to terminal consumption.

Major fluctuations in exchange rates constitute the most direct impact.

The devaluation rate of emerging economies still has room for further growth, and the following will be more intense international market price competition. For textile enterprises with high manufacturing cost and high policy cost, it is an inevitable task to find more space to tap potential and increase efficiency in manufacturing and management.

The complexity of the international economic situation remains the biggest external challenge facing the textile industry. Although the overall forecast for the four quarter is stable, it is not without change. The potential problems such as the US debt ceiling and the follow up risks of European debt have not been completely solved. The sustainability of Japan's stimulus policy is doubtful. The risk of emerging economies is still high. Although the US has indicated that it will not quit QE3 for the time being, the downward trend of economic growth triggered by international capital reflux has not stopped for more than a quarter. Although capital market turbulence has not yet had a significant impact on the demand side of emerging markets, if the downward trend of macroeconomic growth continues, the effect of final consumption is only a matter of time.

Large fluctuations in exchange rates are the most direct impact on the textile industry at this stage. Because of the change of international capital flows, the exchange rate of many emerging economies fell, and India and Indonesian currencies entered a fast depreciation channel in the three quarter, with a cumulative depreciation rate of over 10%. However, in the context of continued strength of the US dollar, the RMB still shows the trend of overall appreciation, and has appreciated 2.3% by the end of 10.

RMB exchange rate reform for 8 years, to deal with and resolve the impact of appreciation has long been the basic skills of textile enterprises, even if the next step in the trend of the renminbi still does not exist the obvious depreciation of expectations, does not constitute obvious pressure. However, the depreciation rate of emerging economies will still have room for further growth, which will result in more intense international market price competition.

　　 Orders for middle and low grade products transfer to Southeast Asia

Promoting deep participation and leading the adjustment of industrial structure

The structural decline of the international market share of textile industry is the inevitable result of market regulation. In this process, there are two questions worth thinking about. First, whether there is any inappropriate policy to prompt international orders to be out of the market and regulate excessive outflow. Two, whether China's textile industry has deeply participated in and led the new adjustment of the industrial pattern.

The manufacturing cost of China's textile industry is still rising. This year, the trend of shifting orders from middle and low grade products to Southeast Asian countries with more factor price advantages has not stopped. According to relevant statistics, the proportion of textile and clothing exports in China in the EU, the United States and Japan has dropped by 1.7 percentage points, 0.4 percentage points and 1.7 percentage points over the same period last year, while the share of Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia increased 1~9. In the long run, the textile industry in Southeast Asian countries will inevitably form an industrial development pattern with cooperation and complementarity as the main body in our country. From this perspective, the loss of orders at the moment is not terrible. Only in this process are two questions worth pondering. First, whether there is any inappropriate policy to prompt international orders to be out of the market and regulate excessive outflow. The two is whether China's textile industry has deeply participated in and led the new adjustment of the industrial pattern. If we answer "no" to the first question and answer "yes" to the second question, then the order outflow will become another positive form of the optimization of the textile industrial structure.

　 The polarization of enterprise development level is an inevitable trend.

Improving the living environment of small and micro enterprises to promote healthy growth

The promotion of small and micro enterprises lacking competitiveness through market competition will naturally exit, which is only one aspect of the organizational structure adjustment of textile industry. From the overall level of the industry, improving the quality of survival of small and micro enterprises is the key, which is not only related to the quality of the whole industry and the prospect of sustainable development, but also to the improvement of people's livelihood.

The survival pressure of small and micro enterprises is outstanding in the economic performance of the textile industry this year. According to the questionnaire survey conducted by the China Textile Industry Federation recently, the production, order, benefit and investment intention of small enterprises are significantly lower than those of large and medium-sized enterprises. Among them, nearly 4 of small businesses reflect a decrease in profits over the same period, and a larger proportion of medium-sized enterprises is nearly 2.

Small and micro enterprises exist in the textile industry in large numbers. The fundamental reason is that the multilevel nature of our domestic demand market determines the division of labor in the industry, rather than backward productivity and stubbornness and reluctance to quit. Small and micro enterprises have their specific demand groups and market power. Objectively speaking, as long as China's urban and rural economic differences are still two yuan, small and micro enterprises will exist in large numbers.

In today's market full competition and the acceleration of industrial structure adjustment, the polarization of enterprise development level is the inevitable result, and it does not really become a problem. However, the vast number of small and micro enterprises have long been trapped in the plight of survival. The emergence of this situation, in addition to the structural deficiencies of small and micro enterprises themselves, the policy has not given enough guidance to social resources is also an important reason. We should actively promote the upgrading and development of industrial clusters, improve the public service system and service functions of clusters, and study supportive policies that are generally beneficial to enterprises. It is an effective way to promote the healthy development of small and micro enterprises from the perspective of improving the living environment of small and micro enterprises.

　　 Overseas layout and domestic industry form a division of labor and complement each other.

Gradient transfer in Midwest into local economic considerations

The pure pursuit of comparative advantage is not a sustainable and feasible way of thinking. It may combine the layout adjustment of textile industry with the development of local economy in the central and western parts of the country, and really take the textile industry as a rich industry, as a pillar industry that can effectively drive the development of local economy, so as to form a more effective policy system and industrial environment.

Over the past two years, the speed of domestic textile industry transferring to overseas has accelerated significantly. Although the practice of external transfer is still limited to a few enterprises, it also raises concerns about the "hollowing" of the domestic textile industry. The destination of China's textile industry's external transfer is mainly in Southeast Asian countries. Its limited carrying capacity of resources and environment and the serious and incomplete textile industry system determine that the effective layout of China's textile industry in these areas must form a division of labor and complementary relationship with domestic industries. Therefore, as long as the policy is right, there is no hidden danger of "hollow" in the domestic textile industry.

Comparatively speaking, the slowing down of domestic industrial transfer is a more worrying structural problem. The central and western regions are limited by the total population and the level of economic development, and the local market capacity is relatively limited. The comparative advantage of these factors is not very obvious. Considering the factors of labor quality and so on, the comprehensive manufacturing cost has no advantage, so it is difficult to make up for its deficiencies in geographical location, industrial system and so on. In the 1~10 months of this year, the fixed assets investment volume of textile enterprises in the central region increased by 15.4% compared with the same period last year, slower than the eastern growth rate of 3.5 percentage points, and the investment volume dropped by nearly 1 percentage points over the same period last year. This situation is very rare in recent years.

The fact that China's huge multi-level domestic demand market needs self-sufficiency determines that it is an inevitable trend to build a reasonable division of labor and cooperative development in China. Industry practice shows that the simple pursuit of comparative advantage is not a sustainable and feasible way of thinking. Perhaps the layout adjustment of textile industry should be closely combined with the development of local economy in the central and western regions, and the textile industry should be taken as an industry that enriches the people. Economic development Only in this way can we form a more effective policy system and industrial environment, and promote a truly competitive and systematic layout in the central and western regions.