After The Two Quarter, Risk Is Not Hanging On A Tree.

Over the years, China's stock market has been suffering from the "fear of expansion". In today's stock market which is much bigger than the demand, the fear of new shares is exacerbated by the market. P

The stock market dropped 270 points after the news of IPO was reissued, which is a clear proof.

< /p >

In the commodity market, especially in the capital market, the relationship between supply and demand has always been the most essential factor that causes the fluctuation of the market price. P

Restoring the expansion of new shares is definitely bad for the market.

What we need to study is: how does this negative impact on the market impact? How does it affect each sector? What are the different roles of bad profits in different periods? < /p >

< p > < strong > 1., the gain and loss of the new share reform is less than /strong > /p >

From the positive point of view, from the "positive" point of view, the new reform of IPO has achieved some success: eliminating the previous "specialized new market" professional team with no risk investment, avoiding the large retreat of the two level market funds; avoiding the situation of "dumping garbage" and the large amount of stock capital in the first tier market on the first day of the IPO market; strengthening the supervision over the inquiry process of new shares, reducing the issue price earnings ratio of new shares to about 30 times, and the issuance of the old stocks accounted for about 38% of the new shares, thus blocking the issuance of the "three high" p; and by closing the trading measures, the closing price and turnover rate of the first day of the IPO were reduced.

< /p >

< p > however, there is still a lot of "loss" in the < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID=101112107105" > the new share reform < /a >, that is, the disadvantages: < /p >

< p > (1) did not use the preferred stock to control the "single dominance". Even if the stock issue was introduced, the shareholding ratio of some controlling shareholders is still over 70%, which is a compromise to the interest groups of the family enterprises, and is far from the requirements of the public companies and the modern enterprise system.

< /p >

< p > (2) the issuance of old stock is a non early reduction of the size of a disguised form, which is not only contrary to the provisions of "the reduction of the size of the three years should be linked to the issue price", but also violates the 132 law of the company law that "the controlling shareholder of a listed company is not allowed to pfer within one year after listing".

< /p >

< p > (3) the underwriter can distribute the shares allocated to the specific customers under the net, so it is easy to generate interest rent-seeking and corruption.

< /p >

< p > (4) to confront the large cap stocks listed in cyclical, high pollution and surplus industries, it is not consistent with the government's adjustment structure and the policy of promoting pformation.

< /p >

< p > (5) IPO lacks quota management and index management.

The management only announced the issuance of 50 new shares in January. After that, the number of distributions issued in each quarter and month is still a black box, lacking pparency.

In November 2012, the position of new shares was stopped at 2102 points, and the position of restarting the new shares was now 2000, and every day was forced by the "violent brother" to lift the petrifaction.

Since the management asks the listed companies to strengthen the market value management of stocks, why do they not strengthen the market value management and index management of the stock market? Why is it indifferent to the stock market increase in 2013? < /p >

< p > (6) management only takes the issue of new shares as a hard target and hard task, and strictly implements the deadline. However, the serious imbalance between supply and demand of the stock market and the expansion of capital are always empty talk, and there is no concrete move.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 2. < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx? ClassID=101112107108" > issuing new shares < /a > at the expense of large cap stocks and index at the cost of < /strong > /p >

< p > before the stock market often had the "82 phenomena" and the "28 phenomena" style pformation. After the stock market fell for a long time, they often had band rebounding, and even staged a leading market.

The valuation of large cap stocks remained at 12 - 15 times earnings.

< /p >

< p > however, since the expansion of the gem 355 stocks, the market share led by the "28 quotes" are very scarce.

Even if it appears, it can only last for one day or half a day.

< /p >

< p > that is because the stock market with limited funds has shifted. The issue and speculation of the small cap and new stocks on GEM are at the expense of large cap stocks and multiple stock index.

The continuous listing process of new shares is the process of continuous marginalization of large cap stocks.

< /p >

Less than P, the price earnings ratio of large cap stocks has gradually declined to 10 times, 8 times and even 4 to 5 times, and bank stocks have fallen through net assets.

Even if QFII, fund and Huijin Company buy the serious blue chip stocks which are seriously oversold according to the valuation standard of the international mature stock market, they are also dead.

Even if their spokesmen continue to advocate "big blue chips are of great value", there is no answer.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 3. the impact of new shares on GEM in the first quarter is still positive < /strong > /p >

< p > according to the arrangement of management, only 50 new shares are issued in 1 - February. The trial committee will not start work until March. Queuing enterprises need to re declare the new shares according to the annual report data in 2013.

It can be estimated that from the issuance of the trial committee to start the resumption of audit, to pass, to send approval, and then to the issue of shares, the next batch of IPO is the earliest time after the end of the "two sessions" in March 15th.

< /p >

< p > that is to say, in the next two months, only 50 new shares will expand, and the majority of them will be small cap stocks. The pressure is not great. Even the old stocks with better quality and lower valuation will have the upward pulling effect, and the impact of new shares on the market will be positive.

< /p >

< p > on Friday, the 82 million 500 thousand shares of the traditional industry and 0.47 yuan of new shares were closed at 25.34 yuan, which had set a benchmark for the market and had a positive impact on the related stocks: < /p >

< p > gem, medium and small board, which is more valuable, more advanced in industry, lower in valuation and high in delivery, and has the advantage of taking advantage of the situation. < /p >

< p > some of the more than 10 yuan of low price stocks that had not risen in the past year broke out, such as the lowest price Beidou navigation concept plus the concept of mobile games, which was strongly promoted by Euro bit; < /p >

< p > a group of similar stocks that are going to be listed on the growth enterprise market and small and medium board stocks are also close to the high issue price of new shares (such as Dongbao biology and Rong Ke Technology); < /p >

< p > some circulation stocks and total shares are smaller than neve shares, and the high-tech stocks whose shares are lower than 10 yuan are also rising by volume due to the imbalance of the price (such as Hua Hong Ji Tong, Beijing Jun Zheng, etc.); < /p >

< p > the leader of Shanghai's state-owned asset reform concept and the first batch of state-owned assets restructuring pilot stocks, according to public information, they will be reborn as a new industrial stock after regrouping. Their share price is only 1/3 of Newey's share, which is obviously imbalance in price, more opportunities than new shares, attracting people to change positions.

< /p >

< p >, in this sense, we should thank the new fry of Newell stock for raising the basis of other stocks.

Because the most irresistible rule in commodity market is the principle of parity! < /p >

< p > this Friday, there was a particularly concentrated interest: a number of trust exploding positions made the banking stocks weaken collectively; on the delivery date of the stock index futures, the bears again suppressed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and the futures index; 9 new shares were issued and the blood was serious; the new stock market of the Shanghai Stock Exchange was listed on New Zealand stock market, attracting funds to stir up the new market, losing blood in the market, and so on, making the capital market of the already strained market overwhelmed.

< /p >

< p > but the IPO is coming to an end next week. The end of the stock index futures delivery day still has not broken 2000 points. Next week 2000 points are even more difficult to break.

The market will aim at 50 new shares, and start speculation on the small cap stocks of emerging industries and small and medium sized boards.

Institutions and investors will seize this year's most important "eating quotes" to create a "Chun Sheng" market before and after the Spring Festival.

< /p >

< p > < strong > 4. after the two quarter, the impact of the new shares on the market will increase. < /strong > < /p >

< p > generally speaking, the total amount of new shares starting in the two quarter is definitely greater than that in the first quarter.

Therefore, the negative effect of new shares on the market will increase.

< /p >

< p > not only will large cap stocks suffer more intense new shares, but gem will also be doomed.

In particular, the 399006 gem index, although its seven heavyweights still have various themes and growth, but has gained several times since last year; many stocks have gained 1-2 times, and there are lots of profits and high valuations.

If we encounter super strength expansion of new shares, its share price will be hard to sustain.

< /p >

If P said last year, I would say that last year's growth enterprise market is a big opportunity, almost without risk. Every time the callback is unswerving in the growth enterprise market, it is advocated that the stock market will not move. Then, this year, I think that < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/list.aspx ClassID= 101112107102" > gem < /a > after the two quarter, there is also a risk, advocating mobile warfare, guerrilla warfare, not hanging on a tree, and trying to win the victory.

What I am more optimistic about is the growth of the gem last year, the high growth rate, the high turnover expectations, the valuation below 30 times price earnings ratio, and the stock price at 10 - 20 yuan, the margin of safety is relatively high.

And more optimistic about the 399102 gem composite index.

< /p >

< p > If only last year, if we chose the right plate to lock in profits, then this year, we should choose not only the right plates but also the individual stocks.

< /p >

< p > this year, if we are looking for a safe haven that can not be afraid of expansion and profitability, it can surpass the exponential rise and fall and gain more opportunities and more secure, that is the low price stocks of Shanghai's state-owned asset reform concept can be reborn into a strategic emerging industry.

This is the magic weapon in the bear market, which relies on exogenous growth and profits. It is the biggest and most profitable opportunity that the world stock market has ever proved.

< /p >