Smith Barney Clothing Performance Will Gradually Restore Integrated Layout Leading

< p > overall, we expect that the downside risk of this year's performance will be controllable. Under the guidance of low base effect and equity incentive goal, the profit will be more flexible.

Q1's performance elasticity is not yet obvious, but the improvement will occur.

At present, the valuation of the 14 years is 14 times, and the downside risk is controllable. It can be arranged along with the rhythm of the recovery of achievement and the development of the theme of integration within and under the line.

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< p > by the downturn of the retail environment and the impact of its own inventory adjustment, the performance of the company is still in the declining range for the past 13 years.

In the 13 year, when the retail market continued to be weak, the company's stock size declined significantly over the past quarter, and the effect of inventory on sales decreased.

At the same time, in order to maintain the health of the channel, in order to control the risk, the reduction in the size of the new products also affects the income performance to a certain extent.

According to the results express, last year, the company achieved sales revenue of 7 billion 890 million yuan, down 17.03% compared to the same period last year, operating profit and net profit attributable to parent company were 5.43 and 432 million yuan, respectively, down 39.32% and 49.16%, respectively, and the basic earnings per share were 0.43 yuan.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > channel reform < /a > the effect is beginning to show, Q4 income decreases obviously narrowing, business profit is positive, and the growth of joining in pick-up is increasing.

Since last year's reform of product innovation and channel experience upgrading, the promotion of new experience stores has improved the core retail indicators, such as customer satisfaction, shopping time, paction rate, customer price and positive rate, and the reform measures of direct business system are gradually being infiltrated into the franchise system.

Last year, Q4 franchisees increased their cargo volume by 16% over the same period last year, effectively easing the pressure of Q4 revenue decline, narrowing the Q4's decline to 8.13%, and rebounded by 13.82 percentage points over Q3.

From the profitability indicators, with the decline in stock products, the increase in sales of positive prices and the rise in gross margins make Q4 business profits grow for the first time in nearly a year, an increase of 24.85% over the same period last year.

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In the past 14 years, product innovation, channel experience upgrading and supply chain optimization have been promoted continuously, and P will restore strong performance to the foundation.

With the stimulation of the Spring Festival, the company's terminal sales in January grew by more than 10%. Although it is still not possible to judge the pulling rate from the demand side to sales, it is necessary to observe the data in 1 and 2 two months.

But overall, last year, the inventory problem of the company has been well received, and the awareness of risk control has been strengthened. The continuous improvement of channel health, the development of commodity category and the continuous promotion of the new experiential store image will lay the foundation for the company's performance recovery and development this year.

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< p > mobile terminal < a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > electricity business > /a > pioneering consciousness. Now PC, mobile internet terminal and offline stores have initially formed the basis of interoperability, interconnection and interaction, so as to make preparations for O2O in the future.

In a series of reports on the 2014 annual investment strategy of the textile and apparel industry (clothing brand research volume twelve) - sailing online and online to grasp the mobile Internet tickets and the analysis of the business in the US, we have clearly pointed out that the industry growth mode is still in a period of change, and there are no essential changes in the new business mode such as the electricity supplier and the reconstruction of the price system. However, some enterprises have been exploring the strategy of online and offline development, bringing about some new growth points.

This will make the market changes to the industry less pessimistic than before, and thus enhance the recognition of excellent companies with forward-looking strategies.

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< p > > a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > Mei Bang < /a > has an early layout awareness of the impact of Internet development on the apparel industry, enabling it to seize certain opportunities in the wave of the development of the electronic business of the mobile terminals. It is interactively integrating PC, mobile Internet terminals and offline entities.

Although all the real O2O operations are implemented at present, there is still difficulty in solving the same price and franchisee's interests, but the company's direct business occupies a relatively high proportion. The difficulty of franchising is more easier than that of the franchised companies. Once the O2O mode is formed, the speed of popularization in the whole system will take an advantage in the industry.

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< p > profit forecast and investment advice: from the current situation, inventory problems have been well received, and the quality of growth has also been restored.

With the implementation of innovative business philosophy, the image of terminal products and channels will be improved.

Just under the background of increasing competition in international brands, the implementation and improvement of the company's innovative management concept in the whole country needs a process, and the release of sales results should be gradually reflected.

Considering that this year the company will strive to achieve the goal of equity incentive, though it is difficult, the profit side will probably get a substantial recovery. According to the express, we slightly adjusted 13-15 years EPS to 0.43, 0.79 and 0.94 yuan / share respectively.

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< p > overall, the United States leads the mobile terminal layout in this round. Of course, the integration of online and offline businesses and the implementation of new experience stores still need a process to improve.

It is estimated that the 14 year performance downward risk is controllable, and there is room for recovery in fundamentals. Under the guidance of low base number and equity incentive, profits will have greater elasticity.

Although the elasticity of performance may not be obvious in the first quarter, the improvement will occur.

At present, the valuation of the 14 years is 14 times, and the downside risk of the share price is relatively controllable. The subsequent elasticity depends on the pace of recovery and the progress of the O2O theme.

Based on the relative downtrend of the valuation downside risk and the fundamentals in the recovery process, the company is relatively ahead of the trend of online and offline integration, maintaining the investment rating of "strongly recommend -A".

From 6 months to a year, the target price is given 14 years and 18-20 times as the center, and the target price center is 14.22-15.80 yuan.

But the impact of subsequent reduction on stock prices also needs to be noted.

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< p > risk note: 1) economic slowdown inhibits consumption demand, sales are lower than expected; 2) new experience shop cost increases; 3) MC brand development is not as good as expected; 4) risk reduction of major shareholders by the end of April this year.

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