Cass: The Lower Limit Of Economic Growth Tolerance Can Be Moved To 7%.

< p > April 29th, the Economic Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences released the analysis of China's economic prospects in 2014. The report predicts that the annual growth rate of GDP will be 7.4%, down from last year, and the growth rate of investment, consumption and import and export in the whole year is expected to be better than that in the first quarter.

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< p > the research group believes that when protecting the bottom line of employment protection, we can appropriately tolerate the downward movement of the economic growth rate and make the reasonable interval of economic operation more flexible.

For example, the lower limit of the reasonable range of macroeconomic regulation and control can be shifted from 7.5% in 2013 to 7% in 2014.

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P, a number of officials involved in current economic research, said that the adaptability of enterprises at micro level is enhanced, and their benefits and confidence are stabilized.

Some industry associations suggest that there should be no large-scale stimulus policies to avoid big fluctuations in the industry.

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< p > Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that consumption driven role is limited and steady growth still depends on investment.

Investment in the future should be focused on social fields such as education, culture, health care, investment in equipment upgrading and technological pformation, as well as energy conservation and environmental protection industries.

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< p > < strong > in the future or continue to "micro stimulation" < /strong > /p >

< p > macro data released in the first quarter of this year, GDP grew by 7.4% over the same period last year, down 0.3 percentage points from last year, which is a new low in recent years.

Among them, the growth rate of fixed asset investment fell most obviously, an increase of 17.6% compared with the same period last year, and the growth rate dropped by 3.3 percentage points.

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< p > the research group predicted that the annual growth rate of a href= "http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp" > GDP < /a > was the same as that of the first quarter, and the index of investment, consumption and total exports was better than the first quarter.

GDP grew by 7.4% throughout the year, with fixed investment increasing by 18.4% compared with the same period last year, total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 13%, total exports increased by 7.2%, and the growth rate of the latter three macroeconomic indicators in the first quarter was 17.6%, 12.3% and -3.4% respectively.

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< p > GDP increased by 7.4%.

The research group thinks that there are several main reasons: overcapacity and debt risk will slow the growth of fixed assets investment; consumption will continue to grow steadily in the past year, but it will not be the decisive factor to drive the economy up; the net export of goods and services will be further reduced.

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In the process of continuing economic exploration, in April this year, the State Council promulgated a series of steady growth measures, such as preferential tax incentives for small and micro enterprises, increasing the pformation of shanty towns, speeding up the construction of Railways in the central and western regions, and launching 80 projects to social capital.

Different from the large-scale stimulus in 2009, this has been interpreted as a "micro stimulus" policy.

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< p > April 25th, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CPC held a meeting to study the current economic situation and economic work. It thought that the economic growth rate in the first quarter was within the expected target of the year, and the economic operation remained at a reasonable interval. The employment situation was generally good and the opening was good.

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< p > Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of quantitative economics and technology economy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, on behalf of the research group, pointed out that under the premise of ensuring full employment, the lower limit of the reasonable range of macroeconomic regulation and control can be shifted from 7.5% in 2013 to about 7% in 2014, so as to allow more room for structural adjustment and reform and innovation.

But at the same time, he said he did not rule out further measures for "steady growth" in the future.

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< p > the relevant officials of the NDRC, the Ministry of industry and the Ministry of statistics and the Statistics Bureau found that the adaptability of enterprises at the micro level has been enhanced and the efficiency of enterprises has been stabilized.

Some industry associations directly indicated that they should not introduce large-scale stimulus policies.

For example, the policy of stimulating consumption, such as "home appliances to the countryside", the related demand is released in advance, making subsequent consumption hard to keep up, and the industry is prone to ups and downs.

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< p > < strong > future investment should rely on < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > social capital < /a > /strong > /p >.

< p > the current situation of the economy, whether the economy will decline further, whether we can achieve the annual growth target of 7.5% and whether we need to further introduce the measures of steady growth are different.

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Liu Shangxi, deputy director of the Financial Science Research Institute of the Ministry of finance, said that the current employment situation is good, and the possibility of further economic downturn is unlikely. There is no need to introduce stimulus policies. P

At present, more attention should be paid to medium and long term risks, such as the decline in revenue growth, but the increase in rigid spending. Aging has further increased the financial burden and financial sustainability is worrying.

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< p > < a href= > http://www.91se91.com/news/index_c.asp > > Cai Jin, vice president of the China Logistics Association < /a >, pointed out that the commodity prices in April have obviously recovered, indicating that the market demand is improving.

In the PMI index, small and micro business activities are more active, indicating that the endogenous driving force of the economy is strengthening.

But it is still in the throes of structural adjustment, and the possibility of further economic downturn is greater.

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< p > Wang Wenbo, deputy director general of the Bureau of statistics, believes that the current economic growth rate is between 7 and 7.8, which is within a reasonable range.

But this year, the target of 7.5% is still difficult. Due to the drop in the growth rate of real estate investment and other reasons, it is necessary to reduce the confidence in the future economic growth.

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< p > Li Yang said that the Chinese government set a 7.5% growth target for the 2014 economy. The first quarter data showed that the economic downturn is becoming increasingly obvious. To achieve the expected growth target, we need to formulate some stable growth plans.

Although investment is a second best choice, steady growth still depends on investment.

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< p > Li Yang further pointed out that future investment should play a decisive role in the market and should rely mainly on social capital.

We can focus on three areas: investment in social infrastructure, including education, culture, medical care, etc., which can promote consumption growth; investment in technological innovation, and energy conservation and environmental protection industry conducive to sustainable development.

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