China'S Foreign Trade: Do Not Let "Pessimism" Suppress The Fighting Spirit.

China's foreign trade, in anticipation of a 17.8% increase in the old age, has already begun a new journey in a sad voice.

People in the foreign trade generally take a look at the year of cattle and think that this year will usher in a "bull market" bear market.

China's import and export trade, which is accustomed to over 20% growth rate, is widely known by authoritative agencies and will slow down to below 10% this year.

Some of the agencies represented by the General Administration of Customs account for only about 5% of the forecast.

This is obviously different from the target set by the Ministry of Commerce of the foreign trade department, which is "synchronized with the growth of the national economy (the authority is predicted to be around 8%)".

If the latter is planned, the Chinese trade community will inevitably have to fight a tough battle.

According to the survey conducted by reporters at the National Conference on business affairs held at the end of last year, most local delegates judged that the foreign trade situation of their respective regions this year was rather grim. It was very difficult to achieve the same speed with GDP.

And Guangdong, Jiangsu and other top ranked foreign trade households even reported a forecast of less than 5%.

People in the industry generally believe that in the first half of 2009, the momentum of data decline in the fourth quarter of 2008 will continue, and China's foreign trade will enter a "very ice" period.

Yu Jian, deputy director of the Cixi Municipal Bureau of foreign trade and economic cooperation of Ningbo, explained that the judgment of the situation in various regions is mainly based on the combined effect of various unfavorable factors. The shrinking demand for Chinese goods from overseas markets will not be a short-term phenomenon, and is likely to continue for some time.

Last year, since the second half of last year, a series of foreign trade support policies will only take effect in the first quarter of this year.

However, it is also expected that the effectiveness of the policy will be discounted if the international environment continues to deteriorate.

JP Morgan said in a quarterly forecast report that the adjustment of foreign trade policy can only help enterprises maintain moderate growth. In the first half of this year, the global economy will slow down, and will lead to continued decline in China's exports.

In fact, the "downslide" that the industry is really worried about is not a reduction in market share, but a sharp decline in market prices under the influence of external environment.

Because the latter is an important reason for the decline of China's foreign trade volume.

A comprehensive analysis of market institutions believes that in 2009, the overall average price of China's exports will decline by about 10%.

On the one hand, the price of international energy and raw materials has been reversed since July 2008, and the prices of China's imports have dropped sharply.

For example, in early December 2008, the CRB index, reflecting commodity price movements, fell by more than 40% from its highest level in July.

In January 9th this year, the international oil price fell for the first time, breaking down 40 U.S. dollars / barrel, down nearly 70% compared with the highest level in 2008, and the price of coal, ore, metal and rubber products are all down by more than 50%.

On the other hand, with the slowdown in global demand, the total volume of orders for China's exports is decreasing, and the unit price of goods is also falling.

In addition, the depreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, and the reduction and cancellation of China's export tariffs in the past few months, and the multiple callbacks of the export tax rebate rate also provide space for the downward price of export commodities.

According to many projections, the export tax rebate rate of our country will still have much room for adjustment this year.

No doubt, a towering "threshold" has been in front of us; a thick and gloomy atmosphere has also spread rapidly in the industry.

Can China's foreign trade break through its barriers and renew its myths?

The Ministry of Commerce has made clear plans for this year's work: in 2009, the business sector must "do everything possible to expand exports" and stabilize foreign trade.

Admittedly, difficulties should not be a reason why we should not stop. Pessimism should not suppress our renewed fighting spirit.

We should objectively realize that the decline of China's foreign trade in 2009 will be an inevitable phenomenon of Global trade after the many years of rapid growth and the negative growth pattern. This does not mean that China's foreign trade has undergone a historical reversal.

We should also be soberly aware that the financial crisis is a crisis and an opportunity for Chinese enterprises.

In order to help enterprises tide over difficulties, the government has taken a number of policy measures in the aspects of finance, taxation, finance and trade, including raising the export tax rebate rate, improving the processing trade policy, implementing the value-added tax pformation in an all-round way, and supporting the industries such as textile, machinery and electricity, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, which are more seriously affected, and encouraging enterprises to "go out".

Local governments have also launched a number of economic stimulus measures.

Two, the decline in competitiveness caused by the global economic recession and the shrinking of the assets and difficulties of developed countries may give some of our enterprises a market share.

China's abundant foreign exchange reserves and a sound financial and financial system are regarded as the most powerful backing for the development of foreign trade.

Three, although the global financial crisis has brought uncertainties to China's economic growth, it has brought new opportunities for the development of China's service outsourcing industry.

We should, as suggested by Zhang Yansheng, director of the Institute of foreign economic development of the national development and Reform Commission, not hesitate to seek opportunities in crisis, actively increase labour productivity and increase the added value of products, and seek new changes and upgrade constantly in the product structure.

This is the way for Chinese enterprises to turn the corner.

2009 is a crucial year for China's future foreign trade. We need to abandon pessimism, strengthen confidence and work together to push forward the pformation of foreign trade and gradually change the state of high dependence on foreign demand under the premise of actively expanding domestic demand, so as to win the "breakthrough war": Yang Jing, editor in chief.