Deflation Has Put Cotton Market In A More Difficult Position.

Recently, the international oil price broke 45 US dollars / barrel occupied the important position of various media and financial websites.

Many well-known international economic analysts and experts have expressed their views on the collapse of oil prices.

The relationship between continuous decline and the cotton market seems to be different from that of the wind and horses. However, careful analysis shows that the heavy oil price has already had a significant impact on cotton prices, and there are countless relations between "energy enjoyment" and "Bai Fu Mei".

"The fall in oil prices will definitely result.

Downstream product prices are affected by many downstream products in the oil market.

"The downstream products are competing on the same market. Can you say that there is no relationship between oil prices and cotton prices?" said Li Ying, a cotton trader in Shandong. More importantly, the sharp decline in oil prices is changing the market's expectations of the domestic and foreign economic trends, and the external environment of the cotton market will undergo significant changes.

Since the end of last June, international oil prices have been broken down from US $100 / barrel for 90 US dollars and 80 US dollars per barrel. Until now, after breaking down 45 US dollars / barrel, the market generally believes that the direct consequence of the downward trend of oil price will be global economic deflation.

Against the backdrop of global economic growth, the domestic cotton market, which relies on export demand, is bound to be sluggish.

Wu FA Xin, general manager of Greater China, Guangzhou ehai import and Export Trading Co., Ltd., said that the textile industry is not optimistic about the future market. Due to economic turbulence and the lack of long-term orders, the enthusiasm of cotton clothing exports from coastal garment export enterprises is very low. At the same time, the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday also allows enterprises to not keep too much inventory, and the domestic cotton market basically does not have any important factors.

According to the survey, the current global cotton market supply surplus is more serious, in which the current annual period of the domestic cotton market will not balance 12 million tons, equivalent to more than one year in domestic consumption.

The monthly demand and supply report released by the US Department of agriculture in January shows that as the world's largest cotton consuming country, China's cotton demand has been weakening, while the US cotton production is still increasing. In addition, India's export volume of the world's major cotton producing countries is increasing, and the global cotton supply is expected to increase.

"Ample supply, large inventories, sluggish demand, coupled with the heavy fall in international oil prices have put an end to the hope that the market will rely on export growth to boost cotton prices, and the domestic cotton price weakness will not change in the short term."

Li Ying believes that the domestic cotton market is worsening, and this year's cotton prices are best not to have the idea of rising cotton prices.

At present, the domestic cotton and cotton yarn market is light and light, and downstream enterprises generally hold a wait-and-see attitude. Although some downstream manufacturers have low turnover in production turnover, the enthusiasm for stocking is still very low.

It is also understood that with the approaching of Spring Festival holidays, cotton enterprises' funds are becoming more and more intense, and the phenomenon that the ginning mills and textile enterprises are selling at a lower price are not uncommon, which aggravates the market's psychology of empty cotton prices.

Due to the fact that the implementation plan of Cotton Subsidy in the mainland has not been announced yet, some of the farmers in Hebei and Shandong are still selling more cotton seeds.

Because of the continuous downward price of lint cotton, many cotton ginning mills are hard to achieve a price sale, and some cotton mills that have not yet achieved sales in pre-processing have lost money.