Interpretation Of Terminal Textile Consumption In 2015

In 2015, the economic operation of China's textile industry continued to develop at a low speed and steady pace.

In the first 10 months, the total retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and needles and textiles in China were 1 trillion and 59 billion 615 million yuan, up 10.18% from the same period last year. The year-on-year growth rate dropped slightly compared with the same period in 2014. Compared with the 10.6% in 2015, the total monthly turnover of textiles in China's textile city was fairly good.

The main reason for the continuous decline of textile and clothing exports and the average decline of foreign trade is the first place.

The decline of the unit price is a drag on the total export volume; two is the impact of the "currency war" on the global economic situation, especially the emerging market countries represented by the Russian ruble, the India rupee, the Turkey lira and the Brazil Real exchange rate, as well as the depreciation of the euro and Canadian currencies. Some of the currencies depreciated more than 30% during the year.

Exports; three, affected by the cost of industry, textile and clothing belong to the traditional labor intensive industries, and the Southeast Asian countries have the combined influence of asymmetric cost advantages, export competitiveness and nibbling the share of China's export market.

2016, the impact

The three important factors of the trend are: 1. The international crude oil market; two. PX/PTA's new capacity release process; three, PX/PTA Factory Limited production and price protection.

International oil prices continue to bottom, and from the latest OPEC conference statement, even if oil prices continue to decline, in order to compete for market share, countries are reluctant to cut crude oil production, so international oil prices are expected to further decline, as of mid December, the United States crude oil fell to nearly 6 years low 35 yuan / barrel, is expected to be difficult before next year's first quarter, the lowest is expected to reach 25 U.S. dollars / barrel near.

From next year's full year, oil prices will remain low and the possibility of a sharp rebound will be small. The whole year is expected to maintain a 25 yuan / barrel -60 yuan / barrel shock.

2016, the supply side needs to focus on several new installations, and the restart of Tenglong aromatics plant. Before the new production capacity is launched, Yisheng and Hengli's overall control capability is still strong. It is expected that they will still adopt the strategy of "limited production quotations" to maintain the PTA processing profit at a reasonable level, and the overall bargaining power of the downstream polyester plants is poor. The loss is expected to become normal; if the Tenglong aromatics 6 million 150 thousand ton plant and the new capacity are put into operation smoothly, the supply pattern of PTA will change, and PTA will return to the excess supply state, and the profit level will be compressed, so the polyester profit level of the downstream will be improved.

Looking forward to 2016, the weakness of crude oil and overcapacity will still be the main factors that affect the trend of the whole market. We believe that the PTA price will remain low and broad oscillation market in 2016, and it will run in the range of 3800 yuan / ton -5200 yuan / ton. At the same time, it is concerned about the industrial policy and the uncertain risks caused by the rebound in crude oil prices.

Since 2000, China's textile and clothing exports have been increasing year by year, and the average export growth rate has been 14.93% in the past 2000-2014 years. Among them, after the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008 alone, the export of textile and clothing decreased by 9.8% in 2009. This year is the second time that exports are showing negative growth in 15 years. It is estimated that the export volume will exceed 5% over the whole year.