Entrepreneurs Need To Configure Different Prescriptions For Themselves.

In the past 2015, many economists have made various analyses and anticipation of China's economy, especially giving a lot of unique insights into how entrepreneurs should survive and develop in the new normal.

In this regard, Zhou Qiren, Xu Xiaonian and Zhang Weiying, the three islands neighbors, through their observation, gave entrepreneurs different prescriptions, and of course, they also gave their advice to entrepreneurs.

Zhou Qiren: when the tide is low, Chinese enterprises need to do this in the future.

At present, Chinese enterprises can do an article on one thing.

Today, China's economic situation is complex. You can see a lot of data, many different fields.

If the time is very limited and what do you want to grasp the trend? Let's look at the cost of China. Why does the Chinese economy mainly look at the cost? For many years, China relies on that.

What new problems are we facing now? We didn't expect China's comparative cost advantage to disappear so quickly.

Where is the next step for China's economy? Now the main theme is pformation and innovation. I have no idea about that. The problem is that innovation and pformation will not be so fast.

If you say innovation, it's not easy to do it.

Therefore, in the short term, it is necessary for the enterprise to think about the price. If the relative price is high, is there any way to tune it down? I think of Liu Chuanzhi's "towel wring water". Is it possible for China to wring out the high cost in the short term from the enterprise, the local government or the entire national economy, and use this as a pition to support innovation, support pformation, and support higher level reform? Otherwise, you can't do more expensive, more original business, and you can not save costs. How can we get there?

At low tide, we need to spread the future.

We need to organize the future at low tide.

Winter is a good time to invest, and we will see it in five years' time.

It is not enough to not work hard today.

Now there are two things: dressing the wounded and burying the body are part of the work, and more importantly, looking at the future.

My basic judgement is that China has never lost its strategic opportunity for economic development. The two sea level has not yet been leveled out, and the wages of workers have been ten times worse. We still have a great chance.

First, China's global positioning.

Many people say that China's opening up is not enough, and its dependence is too high.

I think this is wrong, and there is still great potential for external demand.

China has been used to developing countries in the past twenty or thirty years, whether it is trade or investment, because of its ready-made purchasing power, ready infrastructure and ready service.

How much of our so-called surplus capacity has gone out in the global emerging market sector now? Is trade enough? Is investment enough?

Second, we should open the market.

If we are strong in manufacturing and weak in business, we should open the market.

When a part of the manufacturing sector has gone, a part of the manufacturing industry has been upgraded, and the rest of it is the service industry.

If we do not pay attention to this problem, part of the population will be thrown out of the economic process. This is the next big problem, but it is also a great potential.

The third question is, what are the problems of China's products? We will do a lot of products, and the quality will go up very fast, but still worse, the quality of products lags behind the level of income and lags behind the demand of the consumer market.

China is facing a quality revolution in manufacturing.

Things that are of poor quality and of good quality are in the ascendant.

Finally, China's rapid growth, social contradictions are very sharp, and the problem of income distribution is also very large.

We should put power in the cage through deep reform and rule by law.

We must solve the problem of justice.

So globalization has brought us to a new era that no one expected.

My view is that globalization is mainly a positive effect, especially for emerging markets and developing countries.

Of course, there are also challenges. The developed countries are troubled by developed countries. We have our troubles. We need to consider how to take advantage of them in a globalized framework, eliminate their disadvantages and increase their future opportunities.

Admonish Entrepreneurs: don't stay out of this business.

Do not think that "Internet +" is only a technical problem, it is still a business mode problem, it is an algorithm problem, it is also a system problem.

And the reform of this institutional problem is by no means that entrepreneurs can be outside.

To achieve a well-off society in an all-round way, enterprises are the main force in this area. We must take part in the process of reducing the systematic cost.

Xu Xiaonian: slow down and ask yourself the answers to these five questions.

The recession is at least 5 years, and the worst is yet to come.

In general, the growth has slowed down significantly compared with the past. The reason is cyclical, structural and mainly structural slowdown. This determines that the new normal economy will last for a long time. What is the length of the new economy? The Minister of Finance said at a recent meeting that it might take five years, and I personally agreed.

In the case of slower economic growth and a longer duration of the new normal, I believe that without such a large-scale stimulus policy, such an orientation is undoubtedly correct under the current situation.

Chinese entrepreneurs say that they should be bigger and stronger, and put them before the strong ones. In fact, strength is a foil. They are all thinking big and no one is dedicated.

I feel that doing business is not looking for the draught, not the financial power, so that enterprises do not need to listen to me to talk about the macro situation. This has nothing to do with you. There are good macro businesses and good enterprises. There are also good enterprises in the macro scale. The operation of enterprises is not sailing with the strong wind of the policy.

The key to the new normal is innovation.

If you don't create value, there will be no business model that can survive. Without a reliable profit model, entrepreneurship will fail.

Only by creating value and solving the core problems in business, can we have a foundation for enterprise profitability and sustainable development.

Core competitiveness is not only your unique competitive advantage, but also the core competitiveness of your competitors is difficult to imitate the advantages of technology barriers is very high advantage.

Your competitors do not spend three years or five years without investing billions of R & D funds. There is no way to imitate you. This is the core competitiveness, that is, the advantage of technical barriers or technology.

The question that entrepreneurs should consider is what their core competitiveness is.

China says, "no diamond, no porcelain," what are your diamonds? What we need to think about is not to make the enterprises bigger, but to be strong and precise.

The purpose is not only to get orders, but also to get pricing power in the market, so I am not afraid of cost raising.

Pricing power can protect our hair.

In the case of rising costs, some of the cost can be pferred to the end users. I can continue to live in the competition and continue to develop.

If we fail to see the situation clearly, the enterprise will be very dangerous.

If an enterprise can only do well under the macro economic situation, or grasp its rhythm according to the change of the national macro-economic situation, your enterprise will be very dangerous! The national macro economy is like the weather forecast. If the enterprise depends on the weather, it can only follow the general trend of the market. Excellent enterprises, even after 2-5 years of economic cold winter, will remain invincible.

The situation is good, the development is fast, the situation is not good, the enterprise contracts, the enterprise competition is not who develops the speed fast, but is who lives long.

The pformation of enterprises from manufacturing to R & D is the most difficult concept pformation.

Some say that my enterprises are not accustomed to or do not know how to do research and development, but are still stuck in the successful business models of the past.

If we want to achieve differentiated competition, we need to distinguish value creation from making money. Value creation is the essence and making money is the result.

Why is our business assimilated rather than differentiated? First, because of the economic development stage, and the second is the value pursuit of entrepreneurs.

The value judgment of foreign entrepreneurs lies in their own hearts, and the value pursuit of Chinese entrepreneurs is not from the heart, but to meet the external evaluation and standards to do business.

The convergence of opportunism will only hinder its pformation.

We have to set goals for ourselves. In addition to the pursuit of value and the convergence of way of thinking, there is no ability to think independently.

If the Internet is the hottest Internet, changing the Internet will not change the essence of business. It only improves the efficiency of business. Entrepreneurs lack the ability to think independently and lack the ability to innovate.

Do not do so. There is hope in the business and the economy.

If there is pricing power, there will be profit. If there is profit, it can be developed. If there are new products, there will be new products to attract consumers.

So forming a benign Xunhua, enterprises and the economy are expected to get out of stimulating investment - excess capacity - price decline - business difficulties - re stimulation - more excess capacity......

Vicious circle.

If the business condition improves, banks will dare to lend money, the government will have tax revenue, society can get employment and wages can be raised. Therefore, the focus of government policy should be enterprises instead of printing money and stocks, nor is it the three carriages of consumption, investment and external demand.

At this stage, the bottleneck restricting the entry of these virtuous cycles is R & D and innovation. This is why so many Chinese companies are looking overseas. It is a shortcut to take the overseas M & A as a rapid development of R & D system and quickly improve their technological level.

Although the road to mergers and acquisitions may not be as smooth as expected, after all, enterprises have already realized where the road is, and have already embark on the road.

This is hope.

Advising Entrepreneurs: relying on heaven is the mentality of farmers.

Under the new normal, entrepreneurs should lower their expectations of economic growth, and learn to develop rapidly in the period of high growth. Enterprises should survive in low growth and make their businesses better in less favorable macroeconomic environment.

In fact, although I have taught macroeconomics over the years, I personally feel that there is not much relationship between macroeconomics and business management.

If an entrepreneur thinks that the macro is not good enough, the enterprise will not do well, then he is not a qualified entrepreneur.

It is considered that only when the external situation is good can the enterprises be completed well, then the entrepreneurs will be reduced to the level of the peasants, and the enterprises should be regarded as relying on heaven for food.

I don't think such an entrepreneur is a farmer's mindset. If there is no good weather, there will be no harvest.

Moreover, agriculture is not in this state now. Modern agriculture, no matter drought or flood, must ensure crop production.

As an entrepreneur, we do not need to be happy because of the good macro situation. We do not need to worry about the macro situation. We should concentrate on our own businesses, learn to survive in adversity, and learn to develop in adversity. Just like sailing, we can not expect to be always in the right wind, and sail when the wind is against the water.

The growth and development of an excellent enterprise is not whether entrepreneurs can judge the macro situation, whether they can step on the policy point, but whether the formulation of the enterprise strategy is appropriate, whether the business model can meet the market demand, whether the efficiency of enterprise management can be outstanding among peers, whether there is a good corporate culture, and how to unite employees to work together for a common goal. These are the most basic factors for a good company, rather than that you can run a business well by stepping on the macro point.

Such opportunistic psychology is a major obstacle to the difficulty of enterprises in the current situation, so I hope entrepreneurs abandon the mentality of opportunism.

I hope that we will not go to the draught, but we must make enterprises that can make strong winds ourselves. We will continue to push the enterprises to a new height in the tide of market economy.

In the macroeconomic situation is not good, enterprises that do solid economy should cling to their teeth, and enterprises will always be prudent to manage their businesses and keep their own margin of safety.

If the weather forecast is to rain tomorrow, you will take an umbrella with you, and how long it will take to bring any umbrella is different from each other.

When the economic growth slows down, I think the most important thing is cash in the hands of entrepreneurs. Cash reserves should be left enough to be prepared for the winter. Cash reserves are the dry food for enterprises to spend the winter.

In a relatively poor situation, cash will not be cut off.

Entrepreneurs still need to read business schools.

The level of management, the long-term strategy for enterprises, human resources and marketing are all essential elements for outstanding entrepreneurs.

Slow down and think about these five things.

Slow down, adjust, think about yourself, and answer to your heart.

1. is an enterprise a tool for making money or a manifestation of self worth?

2. what value have I created for the society?

3. why did I do it?

4. what did I do? Others failed to do so.

5. where is my irreplaceable nature?

The larger the market, the smaller the division of labor, the more specialization, the more division of labor and the more specialization, the faster the technological progress, the more innovation, the higher the productivity, the more the economy will grow, and the more wealth will become.

All markets are created by entrepreneurs, and division of labor is created by entrepreneurs.

Innovation is also a basic function of entrepreneurs. Innovation brings economic growth and wealth growth, and how wealth changes new market is also the work of entrepreneurs.

Today's China is a common overcapacity, which means that Chinese entrepreneurs do not have further increased wealth into new markets, and we are saturated in repeated production and markets.

When one can not tolerate this freedom, everyone's rights and interests have no basic guarantee, and the results of innovation do not have a definite return, I think many entrepreneurs will not really innovate.

To put it simply, innovative entrepreneurs are more sensitive to the system than arbitrage entrepreneurs. When a country does not have a good legal system, we can still see a large number of arbitrage entrepreneurs.

If a country has no rule of law, the rules of the game are opaque and changing at any time, and everyone's rights can not be effectively guaranteed, entrepreneurs in this country can not really spend time on innovation.

Because innovation needs not two days a day, not a year or two, but it may be three, five, or even ten or twenty years.

Now, no new product, except for the concept of Internet era, has not accumulated for several years.

If China really grows from relying on past resource allocation improvements to innovation driven growth, our entrepreneurs must shift from arbitrage entrepreneurs to innovative entrepreneurs.

Indeed, the emergence of innovative entrepreneurs requires very important and even fundamental changes in our existing economic and political systems.

What is more important here is the rule of law, as professor Taylor Corn said. Only under the rule of law, the power of the government is strictly restrained. Every talent can have an expectation in the future, and entrepreneurs will invest in continuous innovation.

For this reason, we also need reforms in other aspects of the whole society, including the reform of our educational system.

I believe that when a nation's citizens, especially our college students and our scholars, have a free heart, we really have new ideas to come out.

All of our innovations start with an idea - the so-called "new" is different from what is called "new", which is what most people do not agree with.

So only then can we really maintain relatively high growth in the future.

In fact, innovation is freedom in the end. If you have cranky thoughts, there will be innovation. You will not innovate if you want to risk your thoughts.

So we need too many reforms.

I want to use professor Taylor Corn's analogy: why is our system reform so fast? We collected a lot of drooping fruit, but this fruit will be plucking away, so we still have to rely on ourselves to plant trees in the future.

Let the rest of the world pick up our trees.

Capital is only a tool for entrepreneurs to mobilize resources and achieve innovation. Without the entrepreneurial spirit, the accumulation of government can not bring about real growth.

China's rapid growth over the past 30 years is based on arbitrage entrepreneurs. They find that there is imbalance in the market, and they will organize a group of people, buy and sell products at a low price, produce products that are needed by the market, earn money by individuals, improve the efficiency of social resources allocation, and the whole economy will develop.

But arbitrage opportunities are getting smaller and smaller.

In the future, China's economy will continue to grow. It can not be too high. Even if there is a 5% growth, I think it will still depend on innovation and innovative entrepreneurs.

Innovative entrepreneurs and arbitrage entrepreneurs are different.

Because the sensitivity of innovation and arbitrage to the system is very different.

Arbitrage entrepreneurs will also exist under the strictest regulation of the government.

Let me give you an example.

You may have heard of a northern Shaanxi folk song called "driving animal", the original author is Zhang Tianen, and I am the same county.

They are entrepreneurs of traditional society. They sell things from here to make money there, so they are arbitrage entrepreneurs.

Zhang Tianen himself spent four years in prison during the "Cultural Revolution".

At that time, the management was so strict that some people still wanted to arbitrage, because some arbitrage activities could be sneaky.

But innovation is not the same. Innovation takes three years, five years, ten years, eight years, or even longer. It is impossible to sneak around. It can't be like arbitrage. It's dark this evening, sneaking into it, and selling it secretly tomorrow night.

Without a stable expectation, if private property rights can not be effectively protected, if the rule of law can not be turned into a realistic system by slogans, I do not think China can turn to an innovative country, because Chinese entrepreneurs can not really be motivated to innovate.

Therefore, in order to pform our country's efficiency from the past allocation efficiency to the innovation driven growth, we must carry out the reform of the major economic and political systems.

Deng Xiaoping's reform of the economic system gave people some freedom and aroused arbitrage entrepreneurs.

Only by carrying out the reform of the political and legal system in the future can our country produce a truly innovative entrepreneur.

In this way, the country really has hope.