Cotton Consumption And Import Cotton Yarn Demand Are In A "Shifting Period".

The surge in imports of China's cotton yarn is mainly due to internal and external spreads.

The first country of origin has become Vietnam, and the proportion of imported yarn is rising. It is estimated that the import volume will be around 1 million 850 thousand tons this year (Note: the fourth quarter is adjusted to 1 million 930 thousand tons).

At present, the textile industry is in a very critical period, which is what we often refer to as "shifting period".

"Shifting period" can be understood from several aspects: first, the textile industry itself is in a cycle of industrial restructuring; two, any part of the textile industry, including cotton consumption and import cotton yarn demand, is in a "shifting period".

What changes have taken place during this period?

In 2012, China's cotton yarn imports increased by leaps and bounds, including growth in the next two to three years.

The amount of imported cotton yarn used in Lanxi, Zhejiang was very representative.

Imported yarn has been used more than half of Lanxi's about 500000 tons of yarn per year.

2015 domestic

The import volume is 2 million 345 thousand tons, the total yarn used in China is about 7 million 855 thousand tons, and the import proportion accounts for 29.85%.

In fact, there are many reasons behind the large proportion of China's cotton yarn imports. I think it is not because of the low output of China's cotton yarn, and the self-sufficiency of cotton yarn is not enough. Now the output of Chinese cotton yarn is about 6 million tons, and the import volume after 2012 has increased sharply, mainly because of the internal and external spreads.

After the roller coaster market, the price of domestic cotton rose from high to high. During this period, some regulatory policies were introduced. The industry believed that the cotton market in this period was "policy city", which stabilized cotton in the world, and the internal and external spreads were prominent.

We all used to think that the imported yarn was concentrated in the low branch range. At the earliest time, the main source of the imported yarn was low branch. The main source was Pakistan, and the largest proportion was imported.

Mainly because there is a friendly relationship between China and Pakistan, and Pakistan's import tariffs are also the lowest, with only 3.5 points.

According to the proportion of 2012, the proportion from Pakistan reached 36%, while other countries were relatively small, such as India only 20%, followed by Vietnam third.

During the period from January 2016 to July, there was a big change in the import yarn market, that is, cotton and yarns in India had been hard to enter the Chinese market, for two reasons: first, the price was too high, China could not afford to buy it, nor would they like to buy it, because there was a lower price in China.

Second, India sellers feel that China's market price is too low.

The actual selling price in China can be even higher than that in China, and even they are developing some markets outside China.

China's largest source of imported yarn has become Vietnam this year.

There are many reasons: first, the output of more than 80% of China's factories invested in Vietnam is sold to China, which supports a certain amount.

Second, the delivery date between China and Vietnam is relatively short.

Third, this year's volume has increased a lot. Another reason is that Vietnam uses mainly cotton and African cotton. The cost of cotton in Vietnam is lower than that in India, so its price is still competitive in the Chinese market.

In the three quarter, the price of imported yarn appeared upside down, that is, foreign prices were actually higher than domestic prices, and import demand gradually weakened.

From the 7~8 month customs data, the import amount is still a lot.

It is understood that some downstream enterprises did not import in the first few months, but after the late June, a wave of inflation and other enterprises were involved. So the volume of imported yarn increased from 7 to August in the two months, and the latter was expected to slow down.