Can China'S Capital Market Maintain A Bull Market For 2017 Years?

The economy is stable and inflation is building up in the short term.

In January, the economic start of 17 years was stable, from the terminal demand, although foreign demand was reduced in December, the decline in the sales of real estate was narrowed in the early January.

From the view of industrial production, the growth rate of power generation coal consumption rose in the early January.

CPI dropped to 2.1% in December, but PPI rose sharply to 5.5%.

Taking into account the dislocation of the Spring Festival month and last year, it is estimated that CPI will jump to a short-term peak of 2.4% in January, and inflation will fall sharply in February under the high base effect.

Social credit continues to grow, and mortgage loans are already weak.

In December 16, the financial sector continued to grow rapidly, mainly due to the promotion of credit inside and outside the bank, which was driven by the non-standard financing of real estate companies, and the new entrusted trust loans were nearly 570 billion. Commodity prices and inventory refunds increased nearly 700 billion of non resident's long loans, but the impact of real estate sales dropped and the long loans among residents fell sharply.

Last week, the central bank continued to put money in place, while liquidity continued to improve.

The real estate market is in winter and the capital market is in spring.

At the beginning of the new year, the regulation of the real estate market is still being strengthened. In particular, Chongqing launched a new version of the property tax in the new year. It will levy a 0.5% property tax on the first and above ordinary houses purchased by the "three no" personnel.

In the frenzy of rising house prices, Chongqing, which is stable in housing prices, is undoubtedly a clearing. If its property tax policy can be popularized across the country, the real estate bubble will be effectively suppressed.

Despite the poor performance of the domestic stock market last week, we believe that the capital market in spring is still full of hope: first, the optimistic expectations of Trump have dropped, the US dollar index has weakened, and the repatriation of funds is conducive to emerging markets.

Two, the domestic economy started smoothly in 17 years, and inflation is expected to peak in the near future.

Three, the central bank reinvested money, and the liquidity of the money market improved significantly at the beginning of the year.

Four, the regulation of real estate is gradually strengthened, and residents' funds will gradually withdraw from the real estate market, and it is expected to gradually flow into the capital market.

During this period, the growth enterprise market and the new stock market have become the most serious disaster areas in the market turmoil. When the market has dropped down and some stocks have fallen off rationally, people are apt to be irrational.

Looking at some articles casually is similar to the gem, but it is not enough, including the new shares, the P / E ratio is too high, and the next thing is falling.

Of course, there are also complaints about the new issue of new shares, but in general, there is a feeling of despair at present.

First, we talk about the situation of the market itself. The gem index starts from 585 at the end of 2012, and touches 4037 points at the highest level. The index has the biggest increase of 6 times or 1899 times in January 13, 2017, or 2.25 times.

The Shanghai composite index only reached the bottom 1849 points in June 25, 2013. Only later did it follow the growth of the gem index, the highest level was 5178 points, 1.8 times the increase. In January 13, 2017, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3112 points, or 68.3%.

Since 2012, the index fluctuation of the market can clearly tell us where the real opportunity lies.

If there are many bubbles in the growth enterprise market and need to be squeezed out, why is the market still not squeezed out for so many years? If there are many opportunities for blue chips, why haven't they been reflected for so many years?

Take two concomitant

The typical example of growing up is Eastern wealth and flush. Let's take a look at their lows at the end of 2012 at the time of the start of the gem. Now, even now it is down in January 13, 2017, you can see the price of the duplicate right, and compare the price at that time by 20 times or not, and remember that it is not 2 times, or 20 times.

At present, the Oriental Fortune net has nearly 1 billion profit every year, which is close to 60 billion of the total market value. The profit of flush is about 500 million a year, about about 30000000000 of the total market capitalization, and the P / E ratio is almost 50 to 60 times.

These two companies, investors or institutions of our stock market, should be obvious to all. They are growing up from small companies. According to the ratio of earnings to earnings, they are now earning billions of profits every year. Once the market is strong, you can imagine the elastic space of profits. Are they going to fall back to liberation? No kidding.

It's as if you told Alibaba and Tencent that they have a big bubble. Once they break back to the liberation, is this consistent with the law of things development? They are strong enough to reach a moat. If they do not make any fundamental mistakes, it is no problem to remain strong, but it is difficult to maintain high growth.

Looking back at those so-called blue chips, I would like to ask, which company has such a growth rate of cattle, that is, those blue chips are only relatively mature, but relatively mature in the market is only to give relatively stable fluctuations to combine.

If the market depends on these relatively mature enterprises to develop, ask a very direct question.

What else can we do to help small and medium-sized enterprises, what new three boards to build and what gem to do?

Which relatively mature enterprises do not start from childhood?

Tencent, even if the Eastern wealth and flush, which is not from a small start.

It is precisely because they are from childhood, let more people see a positive future, let more people see a positive dream, let more talents have the desire to move forward.

If we follow the logic of the so-called blue chip first and the rest, do we still have the power to move forward at high speed? Do not be willing to be stable and not allow others to go forward vigorously. If you are not willing to be stable, you will not be able to develop rapidly.

Ask the management, if there is no vitality in the market, no real fast-growing enterprises to support, to develop, and ask, what is the charm of this market? Take the issue of new shares, when the new shares are listed, the stocks are basically two tier markets, and then buy one set after listing, and of course also include some blue chip banks. The bank stocks issued are quite a number, which should be the most important concern of the management. However, we find that, after the listing, the stock market has almost been downhill since it was opened, and it has not given too many opportunities to investors, and some banks are facing the situation of breaking up at any time.

Of course, during this period, the Shanghai composite index was relatively stable, but it has benefited from the deliberate maintenance of some national teams. If there are no insurance stocks, such as bank weights and other deliberately protected dishes, is this index still good looking? Some people say that these stocks are pretty good anyway, that they are really valuable. OK, come on, the real value has long been skyrocketing. Why did it still rise much less than those of the eastern fortune and Hua Shun? In addition, these enterprises are not the enterprises that China needs to support and support most. Excuse me, is it a normal ecosphere after the two level market is down and down?

To be honest, what President Liu said just now when he took office, I still keep an eye on it and talk about being based on the national conditions and basing on small and medium investors. But the fact is that the current market

The speed is even stronger than the registration system. Is this based on the national conditions and based on the small and medium investors? At least, at present, most of the investors are hoping to slow down and make the market ecosystem more perfect.

Based on the reform of the national conditions, based on the reform of small and medium-sized investors, that is, we must have vitality, no vitality, and nothing to speak of.

I even heard that some people hoped that some things would be worse than rotten to death, so as to continue to speed up the issue, regardless of the market viability, from last Friday's management to launch 10 enterprises at the same time, the release time is relatively late. It is certain that the SFC must be divided internally, but the differences are divided. Before the biggest leader is determined to change, of course, it can only be fine-tuning, for example, the 14 reduction is 10.

If I were a manager, I would listen to the aspirations of investors. I would like to see if there are 300 outlets in a year, 400 or 500, or 1000.

It is necessary to fully listen to the aspirations of small and medium-sized investors. Unfortunately, at this point, we do not see the specific actions of the regulatory authorities. The most frightening thing is that there is no expectation management, even if it is clear that in 2017, 300 or 500 homes will be prepared for everyone to know and understand different strategies.

Without expectation, people will not know how you are playing cards. Theoretically, they will be able to list 3000 companies a year.

Take the US dollar as an example. The most important part of the United States is expected management. It is always said that raising interest rates will keep your appetite and keep the US dollar going on.

Back to the market itself, the gem and the new stock market experienced a continuous decline in this period of time. The breath of despair is obvious. But we are not hopeless. Our bottom line is that we find that many listed companies still have the potential of the past similar to the Eastern wealth and flush eruption, because we can see from the side that too many dynamic enterprises grow and grow in crisis, and these stocks are most likely to be excavated in the sub group of new shares.

Logic is not complicated. The growth of the old stock has grown up. No growth is bound to require greater external force reorganization and other factors to change. This is a huge uncertainty. But for many new shares, the development of the capital market is just the beginning. The high growth brought by the company's operation is the biggest interest of the future cattle.

Now many growth stocks fall to around 40 times earnings, and Moutai is close to 30 times price earnings ratio. Many growth models are definitely growing faster than Moutai. In the future, these growing company continue to accelerate. Are these companies not very low price earnings ratios? So, now is not the low point, not the bottom line.

A truly high growth company is also reasonable in terms of its relatively high price earnings ratio, because future growth will make it cheaper now, just like the difference between the past Eastern wealth and flush, and how much money it makes to earn a few billion or even more than two billion dollars.

So, are there any opportunities for those companies to grow up? For example, Oriental Wealth and flush, and so on, the bear market can make so many profits at that time, and still have such a large market value. Can I ask whether the market will continue to move forward? Will the music continue to infuse itself with the strength of the external forces? So, the gem and so on do not need to be pessimistic at all, but rather contain new vitality. After all, the past historical trend comparison is enough to tell us where the biggest opportunity is in China.

Just like real estate, if the market comes first, the biggest opportunity is there. It must be the strong and the strong. The first tier cities will continue to lead. The history is so real before us.

Therefore, there must be opportunities for the growth enterprise market.

From this perspective, early 2017 is the best time for the layout of gem and sub IPO.

During this period, the global capital market has been rising and falling. We are going to stumble and fall. The great contrast between them will cause the management to pay enough attention to it.

Foreign capital markets like the toss of positive anticipation, which brings us to the immediate results. We need to reflect on where positive expectations are, and more to the contrary.

The Shanghai Composite Index looks good at the moment. Once the market continues to slump, it will be extremely easy to crash.

I remember that in July 27, 2016 last year, people's welfare medicine was on the rise. The management asked why the stock index fell on that day, but you went against it.

At that time, I immediately wrote an article calling for market pactions to be returned to the market, and management did not need to intervene.

After the similar market trend, management did not intervene any more. This at least indicates that management can also see the market voice and be willing to accept something.

Now, when the new problem comes up, we must face up to the time to solve the problem. I believe that the voice management layer is also aware that it is not clear enough, otherwise it will not issue the new issue announcement late on Friday.

We do not need to push back. We need active anticipation management, rational capital market ecosystem, truly dynamic capital market, truly based on national conditions, based on the largest group of small and medium investors, to meet the needs of these people, and everything can live. If you approve of the idea in my article, I hope you can forward it to more people. Let's appeal that China's capital market should have been better, rather than entangled at the moment.

We hope that in 2017, China's capital market will become a real long term bull market turning upward year. Now it is never too late for us to change our clarity.

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