Luxury Industry: The Gucci Fever Is Getting Cold And The Era Of High Growth Is Coming To An End.

If the market anticipate and the brand chief executive Marco Bizzarri has made an early warning, the fourth quarter Gucci Gucci craze has cooled down, but its performance is still better than all competitors. It is the most powerful heavyweight player in the luxury industry.

But the growth forecast for the current fiscal year 10% is officially announced since the three quarter of 2016, with an average growth of 30+% during the period of high growth.

In 10-12 months, the comparable growth rate of Italy brand 28.1% was far ahead of last week's announcement of Herm s International SCA (HRMS.PA) Hermes international group and the LVMH Mo t Hennessy Louis Vuitton Louis (International) road's fashion and leather Department, which has been the first to announce annual results in the end of January.

The Hermes group's fourth quarter 9.9% fixed exchange rate growth was flat, while the organic growth of the four quarter of the fashion and leather goods department of Lu Wei Ming Xuan was faster than that of the 17% quarter, and the fastest growth in six years.

However, mixed interest is that in the second half of the year, the three giants have slowed down. Although the Chinese market has not been affected by all kinds of fluctuations or even speeded up, the slowdown in Western Europe and North America, as well as the Japanese market approaching China, has affected the overall performance.

Jean-Marc Duplaix, chief financial officer of Gucci Kering SA (KER.PA), Kai Yun group, also affirmed the above trend on Tuesday. He said that although Chinese consumers are still active, consumption has shifted from overseas to domestic.

The data released by the State Administration of foreign exchange showed that the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves rose for third consecutive months, while the data released by the Hongkong Tourism Development Bureau showed that despite the seven day holiday of the lunar new year, the mainland visitors broke through 1 million and jumped 31.6%, but the situation of "Wang Ding did not get rich" overall.

Citigroup analyst Thomas Chauvet said the French group was slightly higher than expected in the fourth quarter, but it was obviously not able to meet investors' expectations compared with previous expectations for many quarters.

Fourth quarter, Kai Yun group's total sales of 3 billion 831 million 300 thousand euros, compared with the end of 2017, 3 billion 77 million 700 thousand euros, an increase of 24.5%, an increase of 24.2%.

The market expects the French group to earn 3 billion 810 million euros in 10-12 months.

In the fourth quarter, Gucci recorded an income of 2 billion 336 million 100 thousand euros, an increase of 28.1% compared with 1 billion 824 million 900 thousand euros in 2017, and the annual income of 8 billion 284 million 900 thousand euros, up 33.4% from the 6 billion 211 million 200 thousand euros in 2017, an increase of 36.9%.

The brand's ambition to surpass LV may need more efforts. The Bernard Arnault Bernard Arnott, Europe's richest man, at the end of January, said that the revenue of LV "far exceeded" 10 billion euros, while Gucci in the first quarter of 2018 slowed down to 48.7%, 40.1% and 35.1%, and the further slowdown in the first quarter of 2019 was unstoppable.

Jean-Marc Duplaix also made a conservative estimate at the earnings conference, indicating that the current fiscal year Gucci will achieve 10+% growth this year.

No Agency, a fashion industry research consultancy, said in its report on Thursday that the performance of Gucci indicates that the luxury industry is slowing down. In the past two years, Italy brand is the hottest brand in the luxury industry, and its index is higher than LV.

The sustained slowdown in quarterly performance and the face of a huge tax evasion penalty of 1 billion 400 million euros, Kai Yun group on Tuesday sharply lower 4% to 433 euros, the early decline was extended to 4.50%, followed by a rebound, but still at least more than 2%.

In January 25th, the French group announced that the Italy tax group had launched an investigation into the group's Luxury Goods International (LGI) in Switzerland, which allegedly pferred the actual business in Italian company to the shell company of LGI. The survey focused on 2011-2017 years of operation, because the Italy headquarters of the French group had been formally investigated in 2017.

Last month, the Italy law enforcement audit report claimed that the French giants evaded taxes and fined a total of 1 billion 400 million euros, while Kai Yun group claimed that LGI was a real entity with 600 employees and had confidence in the lawsuit, but also issued a tax warning.

Earlier, a number of Italy luxury goods group had a similar situation, no company can end up alone, with a huge settlement money to end the proceedings, including a large number of Off Shore Company pferred to Italy to compromise.

According to sources, Gucci's current and former CEO Marco Bizzarri and Patrizio Di Marco may face criminal charges for tax evasion.

Gucci Retail Channel Asia Pacific market in the four quarter, 42% of the comparable growth rate led the major markets, but it was the only market that outperformed the overall growth rate. The growth rate of the European market was the worst 19%, and the growth rate of the 29% in the North American market had just passed, and the Japanese market increased by 26%.

The fourth quarter accounted for 85% of the total retail sales overall growth of 29%, the annual growth rate of 38%, electricity providers increased 70% in general, in 2018, online channel revenue accounted for 6%.

Gucci recorded an operating profit of 3 billion 275 million 200 thousand euros in the whole year, up 54.2% from the same period last year, accounting for 83% of the group's annual operating profit of 3 billion 943 million 800 thousand euros.

Operating margins soared by 530 basis points to 39.5% new highs and pushed up the overall luxury sector profit margin by 410 basis points to 31.6%.

Berenberg analysts believe that the French group can take advantage of the cash flow from the Italy brand to actively launch the acquisition to cope with the slowdown in the growth of Gucci brand.

Prior to this, the market rumors that Patek Philippe SA Patek Philippe may sell for tens of billions of dollars, and Kai Yun group is considered to be one of potential buyers.

Kai Yun chairman and CEO Francois-Henri Pinault also revealed that Gucci will launch jewelry series in 6 and July this year, but he said on Tuesday that the group did not need to acquire growth to achieve growth. It is very confident that Gucci can continue to lead its competitors. Italy brand has low penetration in beauty, jewelry and Tourism retail category, and there is still a lot of room for it.

In 2018, 57% and 18% of Gucci's income came from leather goods and footwear, and clothing, watches and jewellery accounted for 14% and 4% respectively.

However, Citigroup analyst Thomas Chauvet also endorsed the adoption of a strategy to stimulate growth.

He said that the French group should diversify to get rid of the over weight of Gucci, once the recession has caused a serious blow to the group.

In 2018, Gucci accounted for 62.5% of Kai Yun's 60.6% and luxury business.

As of the end of December, Gucci had operated 540 stores, with a total annual growth of 11, with a year-round plateau of over 40000 euros / m2.

In 2018, the revenue of Open Cloud Group recorded 26.3% growth, from 10 billion 815 million 900 thousand euros to 13 billion 665 million 200 thousand euros, a comparable increase of 29.4%, of which the luxury sector income was 13 billion 246 million 700 thousand euros, an annual increase of 26%, a comparable increase of 29.1%.

The French group's annual net profit rose 108% to 3 billion 714 million 900 thousand euros, 1 billion 785 million 600 thousand euros in 2017, and EPS increased from 14.17 euros in 2017 to 29.49 euros, excluding the sale of Puma SE (PUM.DE). After adjustment, the net profit increased from 1 billion 886 million 600 thousand euros to 2 billion 816 million 700 thousand euros a year, an increase of 49.3%, and the earnings per share increased from 14.97 euros to 22.36 euros.

Kaiyuan Group recorded 3 billion 943 million 800 thousand euros in continuing business profit in 2018, up 46.6% from 2 billion 690 million 700 thousand euros in 2017, and continued operating profit margin increased 360 basis points to 28.9% over the same period last year.

The EBITDA profit margin of the whole year was 32.5%, an annual increase of 360 basis points.

The Group intends to send 10.50 Euro final interest, a 75% increase compared with 6 euros in 2017, which is 50% of the group's dividend payout rate.

As of the end of December, the French group's net debt fell from 3 billion 48 million 600 thousand euros to 1 billion 711 million 400 thousand euros, and net debt /EBITDA dropped sharply from 0.9 times to 0.9 times in 2017.

Except for Gucci, the other three brands still perform well.

Since the Chinese name was changed to homonym "Bao Bao Jia" in 2013, the Italy classic brand Bottega Veneta has been in a frenzy of recession since the end of 2015. The brand is not only far away from the 2 billion euro sales target, but also has the risk of below 1 billion euros. Since the Yves Saint Laurent (YSL) brand surpasses Bottega Veneta, it has been close to the 1 billion euro selling year, and may become the new third brand of the French group.

The annual revenue of self catering glasses rose by 46% to 391 million euros in 2018.

By the end of the deadline, Paris time 11:20 AM, Kering SA (KER.PA) Kai Yun group's share price rose more than 2%, and intraday rose 3.92% to 468.70 euros.