Kim Ke Ling, Chairman Of The Company: 10 Years Later, The Sales Of New Houses Will Fall Back To 2008.

Standing at this special node in 2020, all Real Estate Company are thinking about the future. A few days ago, Ling Ke, chairman of the golden group, held a live broadcast, and talked freely about his judgement of the real estate and the way to deal with it.

He believes that the property market will be high in the next ten years consolidation, by 2030, new housing sales will fall to 700 million square meters, unchanged from 2008.

He did not measure the amount of sales. But a number of head housing prices have been predicted, and will remain at around 10 trillion in the next 10 years. Pauli puts forward the concept of "peak era", and Hengda should grab fifteen trillion big cakes.

Behind the thinking of the big guys, the Chinese real estate market has been expanding rapidly for 30 years. The incremental market has reached the top, the big shuffle of the real estate market is coming, the Matthew effect is accelerating, the stronger the stronger, the "big fish eating small fish" will become an alternative expansion way, and 100 billion will become the threshold of survival.

In the future, if the scale market is to take a firm foothold, the housing enterprises can only grasp the new trend of science and technology and intelligence in a timely manner.

Fall after crest

As a leader of the gold market, Ling Ke set foot in real estate in 1993. In 27 years, he led the gold area to expand the territory. Last year, he completed the goal of 200 billion yuan, ranked fourteenth, and maintained high net profit at a net debt ratio of more than 60%.

In Lingke's view, 1998-2008 years are the starting period of the real estate market, and the growth rate is not high. After the financial crisis in 2008, the housing companies relied on the three strategies of "high turnover, high debt and high leverage" to expand rapidly, and sales and housing prices rose sharply.

After twelve years of rapid expansion, real estate sales in 2019 reached a peak of 16 trillion. Ling Ke believes that since 2019, China's real estate market has entered a "stable and low growth era."

Lingke predicts: "from 2020 to 2030, the market of China's real estate will be on the top of the top for a period of time, and then it will gradually decline, that is, by 2030, China's annual sales of new houses will be estimated at around 700 million square meters, that is, probably back to 2008."

According to the information of the National Bureau of statistics, the total area of commercial housing sales in 2019 was 1 billion 700 million square meters. According to this, it is estimated that the real estate sales will decline by 58%, which is an astonishing figure.

Scale contraction, how does house price evolve? Ling Ke said that in the next 10 years, prices will show an increase in band based on different economic development and residents' income growth. According to the estimation of the golden team, about 700 million square meters in 10 years will have about 10 trillion sales.

Great minds think alike, and Xia Haijun and other housing enterprises bigwigs are also deeply aware of the changes in the industry trend.

On August 2019, Xia Haijun, vice president and President of Hengda University, said at the interim results conference that the ceiling of China's real estate has already been sold. The sales volume of new houses will be maintained at around 15 trillion yuan, and there will not be any big breakthroughs on the way up. The decline will be around 12 yuan or 13 trillion yuan.

Baoli real estate white paper pointed out that the real estate has entered a peak era, the next 5-10 years, the incremental market is expected to maintain 10 trillion + scale.

Survival of Housing enterprises

No one thought that the growth of China's real estate market was so fast that the first thing to do was to survive and grab the cake.

Ling Ke stressed that the stronger the stronger the housing companies, the less the weak will be eliminated. There is still plenty of room for growth in the head office: "so far, the proportion of large developers who are in the front is not big."

Ling Ke compares the Chinese property market with the US: "the top 20 developers in China now have a market share of roughly 25%-30%, but compared with the top 20 developers in the United States, the proportion of the country's real estate market is 65%."

This means that China's TOP20 Housing enterprises, including Jindi, still have 35 percentage points of room for improvement.

"The pie in the sales market has been fixed," Xia Haijun pointed out. After three years, the top ten developers in China will probably account for 40% of the total sales. The top three developers are about 20%, or 3 trillion yuan.

By then, China's leading housing companies will have to face up to 1 trillion yuan if they want to show up in the top three rankings.

This is also Hengda's performance meeting in March this year. The chairman of the board of directors Xu Jiayin put forward this year's impact of 800 billion, the background of sales trillion in the following year.

In fact, the shuffle of Real Estate Company has already begun. In 2019, 100 billion housing enterprises reached 34. At the same time, the Matthew effect has been strengthened again. According to the statistics, the sales volume of TOP3, TOP10, TOP30, TOP50 and TOP100 has reached nearly 9.5%, 21.4%, 35.7%, 43.5% and 53% respectively by the end of 2019.

Ke Rui said that TOP30 housing prices, that is, the scale of more than 100 billion, has become a watershed in the survival and development of Housing enterprises. A ten billion level housing firm executives in Guangzhou also lamented that hundreds of billions have become the threshold for housing companies to survive.

In order to survive in such a market and to go ahead of scale, M & A has become a key means. Xia Haijun said that the future market space is not brought about by the continuous expansion of the real estate incremental market, but the merger and acquisition of small and medium-sized enterprises, so as to achieve the expansion of large enterprises.

Last year, as the merger and acquisition king of Housing enterprises, Sun Hongbin led the sales of China's equity and sales into the third class, while Shimao, who had been left behind for many years, became a black horse with a large takeover and merger, and the top ten was against Longhu.

On the other hand, the leading housing enterprises have been collecting mergers and acquisitions, while the other side is the departure of small and medium-sized Housing enterprises. Most of the enterprises being bought and sold are the housing companies that have problems in the capital chain.

Li Yujia, principal investigator of Guangdong housing policy research center, predicts that in the next few years, the trend of M & A in housing enterprises will be more obvious. Judging from the situation since 2019, as the financing side of Housing enterprises has been severely restricted, the financing channel of the listed housing enterprises has narrowed down and the financing cost is high. This is a way of survival for small and medium sized housing enterprises with low cost control capability.

For housing prices, the crisis and opportunity coexist, and the Matthew effect accelerates.

Ling Ke believes that the future will enter the "curve Douglas production function" growth curve era, its core is that housing enterprises in labor and capital investment in a certain amount of circumstances, in order to produce more profits, we must rely on technology and intelligence.

"At present, the fastest construction speed of high-rise residential buildings is about 5.5-6 days, but under the downward trend of gross profit margin and net interest rate, it is difficult to raise the profit of housing companies by raising both the inside and outside liabilities and the cost of financing." Ling Ke said that after the industry construction cycle and capital investment have reached the limit, to achieve new growth, we must rely on technological progress.

Lingke also has a unique view of this year's market. After the epidemic this year, some parts of the land and sales market have been showing signs of unrest. For this reason, Ling Ke believes that because the money supply is relatively large, people have more money on hand, and the land price is easy to shoot. But Kim believes that the underlying tone of housing speculation is the same. In the case of high land prices, Jindi will not catch up.

He expressed the hope that over a period of time, the land market would become more rational as land launches more and more, and developers would spend part of their capital consumption. At that time, Jindi would consider investing more land.

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