Questioned Top Stream Private Equity Value Investment: What Is The Performance? Is It Cheap Or Reasonable?

Faced with the market style of new energy, semiconductor and other emerging industries that are prone to double, the performance of the deep value investors this year has been flat headed and has basically reaped negative returns.

There are also doubts. A letter sent to Qiu Guolu, chairman and chief executive officer of Gaoyi Asset Management Co., Ltd., spread all over the Internet recently.

This article mainly accuses him of the poor performance of the products under his management, holding the products under his management for three years without profit, and taking value investment as the umbrella of loss.

Previously, as an old man in the investment circle and a benchmark of domestic value investment, Qiu Guolu's ideas and methods of "cheap is the hard truth" and "people abandon me, reverse investment" are widely recognized.

At the same time, value group fund managers, including Zhang Kun, Cao Mingchang, Wang Yawei, Dan bin and Lin Yuan, were collectively criticized by investors in the market.

In the low P / E ratio value stocks under pressure, does the deep value investment style really fail?

Is this the reverse signal of style change?

Value investment is still firmly optimistic

In the competition between value investment and growth investment, the performance of value investment has fallen short.

Since 2016, it has been firmly holding minority investment in big blue chips, and its general manager and fund manager Zhou Liang, the representative of minority group 8, has achieved - 13.12% since this year.

Similarly, the performance of Fengling capital, which focuses on cost-effective investment, is not very good. CITIC Fengling's management representative, chairman and investment manager Jin Bin's representative work, CITIC Fengling stable growth phase 1, has achieved a performance of - 9.25% since this year.

In fact, according to the third-party data, as of July 31, the representative product performance of Yingfeng capital under the leadership of Jiang Feng has been - 10.55% since this year, and the loss of many products managed by the forest park investment's forest park management has exceeded 10%. In addition, danbin of Dongfang harbor, Jianghui of Xingshi investment, Zhao Jun of Danshui spring and gaoyuncheng of Jinglin have all fallen into losses.

Doubts in the market are also one after another, in a number of products appear to withdraw, the Oriental harbor danbin issued an apology statement.

But Lin Yuan in the live broadcast of thunder: "like-minded, you buy my products, do not buy me, I will never be forced to lose it. It will never be possible for me to apologize. How can a rich man like me apologize to the poor? "

More private equity funds are still firmly optimistic about value investment. According to Zhou Liang's latest article, the return to risk ratio of value stocks is at a rare opportunity once in a decade.

He said that in the first half of the year, the growth enterprise market index, which represents growth stocks, rose by 16%, while the value index of China securities market, which represents value stocks, fell by 1%. In half a year, value stocks lost 17% of growth stocks.

In the second quarter, banks, real estate and insurance companies, which represented undervalued stocks, were even weaker, hitting new lows in the year. Although the stock prices and valuations were very low, this was just a rare opportunity for investment.

He believes that the strength of growth stocks in the past two years does not mean that they can continue to be strong, especially when valuations and sentiment are high. The weakness of value stocks in the past two years does not mean that they will continue to be weak, especially when valuations and sentiment are at historical lows.

What is the doubted top stream private placement performance

The blame also includes Qiu Guolu, a long-time celebrity.

In the widely circulated "a little bit of immature advice about Qiu Guolu", the investor even gave Qiu Guolu "lessons" directly, suggesting that he should not touch products and actual combat, but also pointed out that Qiu Guolu should concentrate on the company's operation, trainee training and daily meals.

Is Qiu Guolu's management product performance really so bad?

According to the third-party data, the longest and largest product managed by Qiu Guolu is Gaoyi Guolu No.1, which was established in February 2015.

In the short term, Gao yiguolu No.1 did not perform well this year. By the end of July, the floating loss had reached 17.31%.

However, if the time line is extended, the annualized yield of Gao yiguolu 1 in the past six years is about 17% from 2015 to the end of 2020.

Taking this year's back testing into account, as of the end of July 2021, the annualized yield of guolu-1 has been about 12% since its establishment for more than six years. Since its establishment, the total return rate has been 106%, which has greatly outperformed the 41.43% increase of Hushen 300 in the same period, and the long-term performance is still in the better ranks.

According to public information, Qiu Guolu was the investment director and chairman of the Investment Committee of China Southern Fund. In her 22 years of experience, Qiu Guolu has been a partner of $6 billion asset management company, founder of multinational hedge fund, and investment research director of 280 billion public fund companies.

At the same time, he is also recognized by the industry as one of the most profound understanding of value investment, and a firm practitioner of value investment.

During his stay in Nanfang fund, Qiu Guolu's investment philosophy deviated from the booming growth enterprise market, and the performance of stock funds was not very ideal. In this regard, he insisted on the blue chip investment concept, but held a reserved attitude towards the GEM market.

After the founding of Gaoyi capital, Qiu Guolu practiced the value investment concept, with stable style and almost no drift.

Zeng Linghua, director of Haomai fund research center, said that it is naturally unreliable to infer performance from performance, and it is easy to fall into the trap of short-term performance impact. The performance of the past year is not good, and the data of the past two years will not be much better. It is easy to leave the fund at a bad time and buy it when it is good.

He believes that the selection of funds depends on logical reasoning and deduction. Can this kind of investment make money?

Are investment managers the best of this approach? Have you been iterating and updating this method?

It believes that when thinking in this way, the decline and downturn are the opportunities, and the fund performance can be viewed more rationally. "It is better to look at the stability of the style than the performance."

Is it cheap or reasonable?

In fact, the concept of value investment first prevailed in the United States, which was founded by Benjamin Graham in the 1930s, and then promoted by Warren Buffett.

The core of value investment theory is to find and invest in undervalued and safe stocks through the analysis of financial statements and other fundamentals.

Value investment was once highly praised in the A-share market. Qiu Guolu and Cao Mingchang, representatives of the value school, have achieved good product performance.

However, with the extreme deduction of structural market style, the growth style advantage of the market is very obvious.

A number of private equity insiders said that no matter in the A-share market or overseas market, there are obvious rotation switching phenomenon in the value and growth style cycle, and it is impossible for a certain style to be in a strong position all the time.

So is the latest market trend. On August 11, Poly Real Estate closed up 8.35%, Gemdale group rose 6.77%, Vanke A, China Merchants Shekou and rongchuang China also rose.

Some securities researchers believe that the current market style differentiation has come to an extreme position. We should be alert to the sudden change of short-term market style. At present, the market style rebalancing is in progress.

A private fund source in Shenzhen said that at present, it may be a reverse signal of style change. "Value is not always effective. It is precisely because value investment is often ineffective in the short term that it is guaranteed to be effective in the long term."

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