Rodgers, The US Investment Master, Will Be The Chinese Era.

US investment master Jim Rogers

In August, the Japanese voice magazine published the magazine Ono Kazuki, an interview with investor Jim Rogers, entitled "the economic management mode of evolution in China".

　　資本主義化的中國和社會主義化的美國

Reporter: after the financial crisis triggered by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, a series of policies, including bank nationalization and enterprise relief, took place in the Western European capitalistic countries.

However, these are the systems established by China in the past.

Does China's stock market rebound sharply, to a certain extent, due to China's "most advanced economic mode"?

Rodgers: now China is more and more like capitalism, and the United States is becoming more and more socialist.

From the whole world, this is a huge change.

Reporter: in 20 to 30 years, the US government's control will be further strengthened and chaos will increase.

On the other hand, the Chinese government's control will be reduced and will be a great success.

Rodgers: I don't think China's economic system is the most advanced.

Deng Xiaoping once said in 1978 that he wanted to start a new undertaking.

He also said, "no matter black cats or white cats, catching mice is a good cat".

30 years later, China has been on the road of capitalization.

In other words, China has become an open market in the past 30 years.

A market that is so open and capitalistic is much better than the closed and socialist market.

The direction of China's change is very correct.

Therefore, I think the future will be "the Chinese era".

Reporter: but to a certain extent, is it attributable to China's effective management of the national economy?

Compared with capitalist countries, China has made rapid decisions and can adopt economic countermeasures quickly.

Rodgers: there are no bureaucratic systems in many areas of China's economy. In other words, the decision-making process has no complicated procedures, so it can make decisions very quickly.

Of course, it does not mean that bureaucracy does not exist at all.

Almost all sectors of the economy are in a free market.

In today's United States and Japan, such a situation is unthinkable.

The decision-making process is too bureaucratic, affecting the implementation of policies.

Reporter: the Chinese government timely introduced the policy of expanding domestic demand, including 4 trillion yuan investment, to maximize its strengths.

The Japanese industry is also hoping for the recovery of China's economy. Do you think China can successfully pform the domestic demand economy?

Rodgers: it is effective to expand domestic demand as a long-term strategy.

However, it is necessary to implement the policy of promoting consumption.

It is necessary for the government to raise the income of the people, encourage the purchase of cars, develop the rural market, stabilize the real estate market, provide housing for low-income families, and accelerate the reconstruction work of the devastated areas of last year's Sichuan earthquake.

The Chinese government has been providing assistance to farmers and low-income urban residents, and is preparing to invest 908 billion yuan in raising people's lives and stimulating consumption.

China's doubling of financial input is no problem.

This is because China's foreign exchange reserves are as high as 1 trillion and 940 billion US dollars, but more importantly, how to make money flow into the areas that are really needed.

Banks are reluctant to lend to smaller town and township enterprises.

On the other hand, these enterprises do not intend to borrow money from banks.

However, I spent 10 days in China in the middle of June.

Even in the inland areas, there is a consumption fever, and there is no shadow of the financial crisis.

Gansu is also prosperous.

Road and irrigation facilities need not be mentioned. Only 126 railways are built.

　　美聯儲的政策是破壞性的

Reporter: China will give full play to its advantages and further implement capitalism and be successful.

On the other hand, how will the US economy recover?

What do you think of the rise of the Jones stock index and the improvement of business performance?

Rodgers: Although the US market has rebounded, it is not the richest and most powerful country in the world.

As you mentioned, the United States now wants to pursue socialist policies.

What the market needs is credible planning.

Just as in the past, in response to the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers, the US government announced plans every time, which would cause market turbulence.

The market is always concerned about the situation from six months to a year later. It is worried that the massive issuance of banknotes will lead to rising interest rates and inflation.

Therefore, the government's plan is not welcome.

The money market is chaotic and the market will deteriorate.

Reporter: can the huge amount of financial resources invested by the Federal Reserve not stimulate the economy?

Rodgers: the plan of the US government only helped the friends of former finance minister Paulson and did not play a role in relieving the poor who paid the taxes.

It is not the fundamental way to solve the problem.

The United States is in a severe recession.

European countries and Asian countries related to Europe and the United States are also in the same state.

Such a serious credit crisis is rare in the United States and even in the history of the world.

We will all pay for that.

Even after half a year, we can not say, "now that the recession is over, let's start again."

The United States is trying to tide over the crisis by lowering interest rates, which is a devastating measure.

The United States is trying to devalue the US dollar.

China is raising interest rates.

Even from a global perspective, the Fed's policy is the worst.

Perhaps in 10 to 20 years, the Central Bank of the United States will disappear.

　　人民幣將成為基礎貨幣

Reporter: if the US economy is further turbulent and China has achieved great success, China will sooner or later replace the United States to grasp the hegemony of twenty-first Century.

George Soros once said that China would overtake the United States sooner or later, though he did not mention the specific time.

What do you think of it?

Rodgers: it may overtake the United States, but that is the next thing that will not happen in the next 10 or 20 years.

Reporter: as you mentioned in other interviews, in the long run, the yuan will replace the US dollar as the base currency.

Rodgers: I once said that the position of the basic currency of the dollar was replaced by other currencies sooner or later. The renminbi now appears on the horizon.

At present, the renminbi is a managed currency, so it is unrealistic to think that the renminbi will soon replace the US dollar.

But in the long run, no one can predict what will happen in the future.

As mentioned earlier, the Chinese market is becoming more open. In the long run, there is such a possibility.

In fact, President Lula of Brazil has put forward a proposal for RMB settlement in China.

Perhaps trade between China and Taiwan will soon be used.

If this trend continues, the renminbi will have to become a free currency.

At that time, the renminbi will appreciate sharply against the US dollar.

I predict that the dollar may depreciate in 2010.

The dollar is a defective currency, and the euro has not so many defects compared with the US dollar.

I am an American, hoping that the dollar will maintain credibility, but it can not be divorced from reality.

We will sell dollars as far as possible by the end of this year or the end of next year.

Even if the US dollar exchange rate seems to rebound, it is only an artificial operation and must not be fooled.

The United States is not a safe haven.

Although the economy looks huge, it is the largest debtor nation in the world.

The United States owes 13 trillion dollars to other countries.

The US trade with China is in a serious deficit.

This is not a problem that can be solved by currency devaluation.

For a long time, the United States tried to solve the problem by using this method to the Japanese yen, but failed to achieve its goal.

The root cause of the problem is very deep, so I decided to sell the dollars in hand.

Reporter: the United States has been unable to assume the role of pulling the world economy. Will the next protagonist be China?

Rodgers: China is the fastest growing country in the world, but it is not enough to solve the whole world economy from recession.

At present, even the economies of China and India are far less than the size of the US economy.

From this point of view, China's investment of 4 trillion yuan of financial funds also seems insignificant.

However, China's banks have enough capital and their loans will boost economic growth.

Although the world economy is in turmoil, China can help its industries to get help as soon as possible by means of bank loans.

This will undoubtedly play a positive role in promoting the world economy.

Although China has not yet been able to save the world economy, it can at least inspire the confidence of people all over the world.