Li Zhilin: Judging The Stock Market Can't Just Focus On The Syndrome.

Recently, when people judged China's stock market, they had great differences. To see many people frequently call the reversal, the bearer makes a slight understatement: the drop is just beginning; many people think that it is still a bull market now, and the bearer thinks it is similar to the "big bear" of 2008. Now the 2500 point is only 3000 points of the bear market half a month in April 2008. Many people think that the 2500 point is the big bottom, while the bearer thinks the 1600 point is not the bottom.

Why are the differences so great? I think it is because they have different ideas and perspectives to judge the stock market.

1, the Shanghai composite index can no longer represent China's stock market. I remember that before 1997, the stock commentators at that time studied the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets separately, thus deriving stock market commentators and Shenzhen Stock commentators. After 2000, with the large expansion of Shanghai stock market and the deep mayor's time to issue new shares, Shanghai and Shenzhen analysts suddenly used the Shanghai Composite Index to judge China's stock market. However, since 2010, with the expansion of small and medium-sized board in Shenzhen stock market to more than 420 stocks, the growth of the gem has expanded to more than 80 stocks.

From 1 to mid April this year, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 3% from 3277 to 3181 points, the Shanghai Composite Index 50 decreased from 2553 to 2366 points, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index decreased from 3575 to 3394 points. However, the small and medium-sized board index rose 13.95% from 5814 to 6625 points, and hit a record high. This shows that in this spring, when all kinds of indexes are falling, the small and medium-sized stocks of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, represented by the small and medium-sized board composite index, have also broken out a very good "Chun Sheng" market.

Looking at the high point from the bottom of May to the end of June 11th, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 4.35% from 2481 to 2590, the Shanghai Composite Index rose only 3.9% from 1829 to 1901, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose only from 2647 to 2782 points. However, the SME board index rose from 5196 to 6022 points, or 15.9%, and the gem index rose from 948 to 1122 points, reaching 18.4%.

It can be seen that after saying goodbye to the rise and fall of all kinds of indices and the fall of index and stocks, China's stock market can not only focus on the card index, but should pay special attention to the SME board index and the gem index, because the number of small cap stocks has accounted for more than 2/3 of the stock market.

2, the Shanghai and Shenzhen turnover translocation shows that the concern of Shenzhen has exceeded the Shanghai stock market. As of June 10th, the total market capitalization and market capitalization of Shanghai stock market were 18 trillion and 230 billion and 10 trillion and 10 billion respectively, and the total market capitalization and circulation market value of Shenzhen stock market were 5 trillion and 960 billion and 3 trillion and 410 billion respectively. The ratio of two cities was 3.06: 1 and 2.94: 1, that is, a Shanghai stock market was equivalent to 3 deep markets. Reflected in the volume of daily turnover, Shanghai and Shenzhen has always been 2: 1 or even 3: 1. However, the daily volume of Shenzhen stock market has exceeded the Shanghai stock market for a long time, indicating that the stock market of Shanghai stock market has been increasingly marginalized and coldly changed. Moreover, the differentiation between the two is intensifying, which reflects the value orientation and capital flow of the market.

In the 3 and ten years, the negative benefit of China's stock market investment forced more and more people to fade out of large cap stocks. At the end of 2000, the closing index was 2073, but in June 10, 2010 it was 2562. In ten years, the index rose by only 23.6%. In the past ten years, China's CPI has increased by 25%, and the total GDP of China has risen from $9920 trillion to US $4 trillion and 300 billion, an alarming increase of 330%. This means that the index of China's stock market invested in 10 years has not only lost the inflation rate, but has lost 2 times the price of the house price, and has lost much more GDP than the GDP growth rate of 1/14. The vast majority of people invest in the stock market, especially investing in large cap stocks, which is a negative investment.

The main reason lies in the fact that in the past ten years, the stock market has carried out a huge expansion of the rare expansion, especially the great leap forward of the expansion of the super large stocks, and frequently pursued the scale of the world first, issued at a high price, drew too much blood from the stock market, and ignored the investment function and profit function only with the function of financing. Today, with the economic upswing of structural overhang, the lifting of the size and the full circulation ratio, the lack of institutional capital, the small share dividends and endless refinancing, the valuation of large cap stocks has fallen below the international mature stock market. The index difference has returned to 2245 points in 2001, and the stock market's ten year results have been lost. What is particularly unthinkable is that compared with the high points before the financial crisis, the best Chinese stock market in the global economy has become the worst performing stock market. Investors are forced to stay away from the most grievous stock market in China's stock market, which is a wise choice.

4, the new development strategy of the country has prompted market funds to gather small and medium-sized shares of emerging industries. The best way to protect yourself against big dilatation is to shrink yourself. Today, the stock market has set up two small and medium sized boards and gem, which specializes in the market of small and medium-sized high-tech stocks, and is in line with the national policy orientation of vigorously developing strategic emerging industries. In this way, small and medium sized board, gem, and small and medium-sized high-tech stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen motherboards have become a persistent hot spot in China's stock market. The small and high technology, high delivery and transfer stocks in the seven emerging fields have long been regarded as speculators of high valuation. They have become a hot market and a long-term investment. Social security and funds have also been heavily involved. The stocks of this hot spot are relatively independent of the Shanghai Composite Index. They often run to win the index, take the bull ahead of time, and take the bull in the middle of the band to gain a healthy profit through high growth and continuous high output. This is worthy of investors' attention to Buffett.

5, the setting up of "short futures and small cap stocks" exacerbated the pattern of low index and high stocks. Since the opening of the stock index futures, as the underlying index is the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, most of the sample stocks belong to the large share market of "surplus commodities", and they are also faced with the expansion of the new stock market, the continuous lifting of the size of the old shares, the massive refinancing, and the enormous pressure of macroeconomic regulation and control, inflation prevention, interest rate hike, the suppression of high housing prices and the suppression of overcapacity. Therefore, "short selling and small cap strength" is the choice of most of the insurers. Even if the index will rebound in stages, it will become a new driver of short sellers. In this way, the rising market will be hard to reappear in the future, and the index will show a "back and forth" shock in the low position, and only small cap high-tech stocks will go higher and higher. At present, the stock capital of the market is more than enough to stimulate the small and medium size stock market. This is the important reason for the increasingly separation of the index and the stock market in the near future.

If there is a dilemma between macroeconomic regulation and control, the above five new problems are also the dilemma of stock market judgment, which requires high intelligence to solve them.