"Internal And External Troubles" Or Make Future Policies Stable.

Recently, commodities under the dual influence of "internal worry inflation and foreign demand" have seen a slight adjustment. In addition, the recent Japanese earthquake has upgraded the "foreign invasion" level again, and the commodity market has fallen again.

But in my view, in the future, with the internal and external concerns, the tightening began last November. monetary policy Or will be transferred to a stable period, will form a relatively mild environment for the capital market, including commodity markets. At the same time, such a moderate environment will help our economy to get through the "internal and external troubles" smoothly. Therefore, the core of the next stage of policy is to ensure economic growth.

Inflation is moving towards cost push.

Since last November, China's policy has been shifting to a relative tightening cycle since the upward pressure of inflation. The main reason is to tighten liquidity by constantly raising the deposit reserve ratio and interest rate, thereby restraining the increasing inflationary pressure.

Domestic inflation mainly comes from the dual influence of cost factors and excess liquidity. Although we have experienced a tight policy period to curb liquidity for nearly 5 months, CPI remains relatively high. Now inflation has eased, and with liquidity suppressed, inflation in China is gradually shifting to cost push. In this year's "two sessions", the Central Committee gave " The 12th Five-Year One of the most important tasks put forward during the period is to raise the income level of residents. The rising level of income in the future will inevitably bring about such a result: first, the rise in wage income will drive up the cost elements, and then bring animal prices up; two, the rise in income level will bring about demand expansion, and will also lead to the upward trend of prices in the future. Therefore, Premier Wen Jiabao raised the expected target of future CPI (from 3% to 4%) in the government work report, which shows that the government has a clearer understanding of the current inflation reason, that is, although liquidity can be suppressed, the inflation of cost factors will be full of uncertainty in the future.

　　 Policy regulation Or temporarily turn to growth.

Now that the cause of inflation has been seen more clearly, we need to face up to the other effects of the tightening policy. Tightening policy is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it has played a certain role in restraining the growth of CPI. On the other hand, it will also restrain China's economic growth to a certain extent. In this year's "two sessions", the government work report lowered the expected growth target of the economic growth during the "12th Five-Year" period, which indicates that China's economy will shift from weight to heavy growth, in line with the economic transformation plan put forward by the government. However, we should also note that the GDP target for this year's growth rate will continue to be maintained at around 8%, which reflects the current domestic need to seek a balance between ensuring growth and adjusting the structure.

In order to maintain a balanced relationship between the two, more structural reforms are needed in the future. Although the central bank has recently strengthened the management of credit, the volume of credit will not necessarily decrease in the future, but structural input is basically positive. For those industries with low output and high energy consumption, credit will be firmly contained; the real estate industry should also be strictly controlled from credit; and the total amount of credit for emerging industries and strategic industries will definitely increase.

According to some recent economic data, China's economy has indeed begun to show signs of slowing down. In February, PMI has fallen to 52.2, which has declined for several consecutive months. Import and export data also show signs of optimism. Although most economists are reluctant to separate the import and export data in February, we believe that holiday factors will lead to inaccuracy of data. However, if compared with the same period data in 2009 and 2010, after the deduction of holiday factors, the import and export situation in February this year is even worse than that in 2009. This shows that the cost push of RMB appreciation has begun to affect China's export industry. At the same time, the slowdown in domestic demand brought about by the policies of real estate regulation and automobile regulation and control has begun to influence the real economy of our country. Under such circumstances, China's economic situation is not optimistic in the next two months. If we continue to extend the monetary policy that we are looking forward to, then it is possible to break the balance between inflation control, growth protection and structural adjustment between the three. Therefore, the future policy regulation will be slightly adjusted according to the economic situation and external environment. The policy of tightening liquidity in the past few months may change significantly.

The escalation of "foreign aggression" requires proper adjustment of policies.

Judging from the external environment, the recent geopolitical situation in Northeast China has become a great concern for the sustained recovery of the global economy. Coupled with the recent earthquake and secondary disasters in Japan, these two factors will affect the global economy in the short term.

At the same time, European debt worries are coming back. These unfavorable external situations will bring greater external pressure to our economy. In view of these circumstances, it is necessary for China's macro policies to turn to genuine "stability" so as to better cope with the impact of the worsening external situation.

Although under the dual influence of "internal and external troubles", the commodity market is now in a period of adjustment, which will fluctuate or become a normal trend. But considering the possibility that China will adjust the tightening policy which has lasted for 5 months, the commodity market in the later period still has the power to rise. {page_break}

In the two or three quarter of this year, the domestic monetary policy will be closer to the "robust" mentioned before, which will create a more favorable macro environment for the domestic commodity market. If the external environment can be relatively relaxed, especially in the northeast and North Africa, such as geopolitics and European debt situation, the commodity market will return to the rally.