October 10, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

[Hongyuan

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton.

Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10920 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 14980 yuan / ton; C32S price 25720 yuan / ton.

2. domestic spot: domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

Before the end of the festival, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises has been supplemented. Due to the weak consumption, some textile enterprises have long holidays on national day, which has restrained the purchasing demand for raw materials.

After the holiday, the purchase price of seed cotton remained stable, and prices in some areas rose slightly.

3. imported cotton: with the large consumption of quotas, the spot trading of cotton has been quiet.

However, because of the great difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, the opportunity for textile enterprises to pay full duty import is also increasing. Therefore, importers generally wait for the further decline of foreign cotton prices in order to find the best timing for procurement.

4. cotton purchase and storage: in October 9th, China cotton reserve management company plans to store and store 100100 tons of cotton in 2012, and 74810 tons actually.

As of October 9th, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 535080 tons, of which 89040 tons were traded in the mainland and 446040 tons in Xinjiang.

5.ICE cotton: in October 9th, ICE cotton missing direction guidelines, the contract was consolidation trend, the October contract settlement price of 70.49 cents / pound, up 6 points; the main December contract settlement price 71.84 cents / pound, up 6 points; other forward contracts rose 10-20 points.

The market is slack, investors wait for the USDA forecast.

Summary:

During the national day, cotton enterprises bought cautiously, and domestic seed cotton prices fluctuated slightly; the spot market paction remained light and deadlock had not yet been broken; the international cotton price rose first and then fell, and the narrow fluctuation was the main keynote; the downstream textile yarn market was more stable.

In October 9th, the relevant government departments will hold a meeting to analyze the current cotton production and marketing situation and deploy the cotton work in 2012. The NDRC will implement the temporary purchasing and storage policy to ensure open purchase and storage.

We believe that before the global demand for cotton has obviously improved, the three tier structure of cotton prices in China will not change. On the one hand, we must maintain the view that cotton prices will run for a long time.

[MEIKO futures] purchase and storage support has highlighted the weakness of the cotton market

Overnight, in October 9th, the ICE cotton contract in December opened slightly lower, hitting the highest price at 72.53 cents / pound, but suddenly dropped before closing. The settlement price was slightly higher than the previous trading day, and volume increased.

Market participants remain on the sidelines waiting for the US Department of agriculture's global cotton production and demand forecast.

Before the US Department of Agriculture releases the global cotton production and demand forecast, ICE cotton will maintain a narrow range of consolidation.

Recently, the India Cotton Advisory Committee issued the first forecast this year that cotton production in India in 2012/13 was 5 million 678 thousand tons, down 5.4% from the same period last year, but higher than the expectations of the previous market, which is about 300000 tons higher than that of USDA.

Judging from the current situation, due to the relatively large rainfall in India in September, the final output of India cotton is likely to be higher than that of CAB.

Affected by the increase in output, cotton spot prices in India have dropped sharply and hit the lowest level in recent months.

In the international market, in October 9th, the price of imported cotton in China increased slightly by 0.25-0.30 cents.

With the large consumption of quotas, foreign cotton spot trading has become calm.

However, because of the great difference between domestic and foreign cotton prices, the opportunity for textile enterprises to pay full duty import is also increasing. Therefore, importers generally wait for the further decline of foreign cotton prices in order to find the best timing for procurement.

From the recent situation, the output of the countries in the northern hemisphere is generally higher than expected, and the harvest situation is very good, which will create opportunities for the decline of cotton prices.

Domestic market, 9, domestic cotton spot prices continue to operate smoothly.

During the National Day golden week, sales of textiles and clothing continued to heat up. The downstream consumption of textile industry was getting warmer and the textile factory operating rate was rising. However, the background of the market downturn has not been fundamentally changed. This increase in consumption is not enough to make the price trend of cotton rise.

Spot quotation, October 9th, the US C/A cotton 87.60 (cents / pound), discount general trade port delivery price 14960 yuan / ton (according to sliding tax calculation); Australia cotton 92.85, discount general trade port delivery price 15635 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 87.40, fold the renminbi trade port delivery price 14935 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14653 yuan / ton; India cotton 83.10, discount general trade port delivery price 14413 yuan / ton.

The national cotton price A index is 19641 yuan / ton; the B index is 18782 yuan.

Market analysis, the overall operation of the textile industry has not yet been out of trouble, the order is sluggish, cotton prices do not have enough action, but throw the store end, plus the market high grade lint supply less, textile enterprise raw material inventory is not enough, all to the lint spot market to bring certain support.

Overnight ICE cotton fell high, Zheng cotton yesterday continued to rise, but the volume did not effectively enlarge, is expected to return to the trend of concussion.

Operation, wait-and-see or short-term operation.

[one German futures] policy to protect cotton city zhengmian choose machine to open

CF1301 opened higher on Tuesday, and CF1301 closed more than 8.1 million hands.

CF1301 closed at 19570 yuan / ton, up 115 yuan / ton, increased 5110 positions; in October 9th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.14 cents / pound, up 0.15 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13780 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14681 yuan / ton.

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According to New York's October 9th news, cotton futures rose in a slack trading session on Tuesday, and still fell into regional trading, showing a trend of consolidation. Investors were waiting for the new fundamentals after falling to two months low in the previous period.

ICE12 cotton settlement price rose 0.06 cents, or 0.1%, at 71.84 cents a pound.

October 9th, the national cotton trade.

The merchandise cotton matchmaking deal was 10940 tons, 1620 tons less than the previous trading day, the order quantity increased by 600 tons, and the total order 93120 tons.

On the 9 day, the price of each contract was set at a high price.

On the basic level, the national cotton working teleconference held today in 2012 stressed the need to do a good job of purchasing and storing, and to protect the interests of cotton farmers and textile enterprises, which has boosted the market.

The market is still weak, the high storage and consumption are still restricting the cotton price rising space. The progress of seed cotton purchase is faster than last year. During October, new cotton will be listed in large quantities to increase domestic stocks, which will be harmful to cotton prices.

On Tuesday, Zheng cotton went higher and higher, continuing the rebound trend of the day before yesterday, but the possibility of breaking through the interval was smaller, and the upper 19700 track could wait for the opportunity to open, and the fundamentals remained unchanged.

Today's operation suggests that 19700 near the layout of empty single, CF1301 reference price range of 19400-19700.

[Soochow futures] Zheng cotton futures open up high solid line

In October 9th, Zheng cotton futures opened high and closed the physical line. The 1301 contract closed up 115 yuan / ton to 19570 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

The turnover was 81860 hands, and the positions increased by 5110 to 212032.

From the ranking of the top 20 positions of Zheng cotton main, the total number of holding positions decreased by 1171 to 68369, and the total number of empty positions increased by 3669 to 86401.

Yesterday, there were 1034 warehouse receipts (19565,15.00,0.08%) for Zheng Shang's Cotton (19565,15.00,0.08%), a decrease of 4 pieces compared with the previous trading day, with an effective forecast of 13.

The US cotton market was flat and small due to speculative short compensation and the rise of the external grain market. The main contract in December closed up 0.29 cents / pound or 0.41%, closing at 71.78 cents / pound.

On the spot side, China's cotton price index rose by 2 yuan / ton to 18677 yuan / ton in October 9th compared with the previous trading day.

The price of imported cotton FCindexM rose 0.15 cents per pound to 85.14 cents a pound compared with the previous trading day, and the import cost was 14681 yuan per ton according to the quasi tax price, and the imported cotton was lower than 3996 yuan per ton of domestic cotton per ton according to the quasi slippery quasi tax.

In the downstream market, the KC32S price in the downstream of October 9th was flat at 25400 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the JC40S price was flat at 30670 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

In October 9th, the price of polyester staple fiber was 11000 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and the price of viscose staple fiber decreased 20 yuan / ton to 14680 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day.

Related information: IMF lowered its forecast before global economic growth.

India cotton price fell below 80 cents / pound for the first time in July 6th.

On the morning of October 9th, the central bank carried out a 265 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, showing that the current capital balance is tight.

Ministry of Commerce 8 day data show that from September 30th to October 7th, the national key monitoring retail and catering enterprises sales amounted to 800 billion 600 million yuan, an increase of 15% over the 2011 National Day golden week.

Summary: on Tuesday, Zheng cotton futures were affected by the stock market rally and the cotton working conference, which affected the high opening and closing solid line, and the price was closed above the moving average system. The KDJ index spread upward and the technical side was relatively high.

Cotton fundamental view, yesterday's national cotton teleconference held, so that a slight increase in market confidence, seed cotton prices rose slightly.

However, the meeting pointed out that the interests of textile enterprises will be taken into account. Therefore, the latter may not rule out the possibility of continuing to sell or reserve quotas at low prices.

The pure cotton yarn market is still slack, and some shipments of better manufacturers have raised the price of yarn, but the overall price is stable, wait-and-see mentality is strong, trading volume is basically flat before the holiday, and there is no big change.

Gray fabric market overall weakness, downstream demand slow down, take goods mentality is insufficient.

IMF lowered global economic growth expectations. Meanwhile, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the Central Bank of China, said that the downward pressure on China's economy was still large, and the cotton consumption situation in the later stage was still not optimistic.

Although the global economic situation is uncertain, in the short term, the effect of purchasing and storage on the market is still obvious. The operation is less than 19400, but not high, and the stop loss is 19000. In the early stage, more than 19600 or more will be able to win.

Two, industry news

Cotton Association of Shandong: effects of rainy weather on cotton yield and quality

Recently, due to typhoons, heavy rain has occurred in our province. Heavy rain in Dezhou, Liaocheng, Binzhou, Dongying and other places resulted in flooding in a large number of cotton fields. Binzhou and Dongying were severely damaged. The provincial departments of agriculture and experts went to the severely damaged cotton producing counties (districts) for inspection, and conducted on-site guidance for disaster relief management in flooded cotton fields.

As of August 20th, according to statistics, there were about 635 thousand acres.

In addition, the recent cloudy and rainy weather in Shandong has increased the rotten bolls of cotton.

The growth was affected to varying degrees, and the yield and grade of cotton were affected.