Bull Market Peaks Usually Occur In The Rush Stage Of PPI.

In China's debt structure, state-owned enterprises and government departments are the main debt entities.

At the same time, because of the nature of state-owned enterprises, this part of debt can also be regarded as a debt backed by the government, so the debt problem of China can be regarded as the "internal debt" of the government in a broad sense.

At present, the size of assets owned by the Chinese government (including land, minerals and water resources) is estimated to be the largest in the world, and the interests of shareholders in state owned enterprises (except finance) are more than 35 trillion yuan.

The low debt rate of residents means that the credit crisis triggered by falling house prices is unlikely to happen, which will not lead to a sharp rise in the bank's bad debt rate.

The proportion of non-public enterprises in the balance of bank loans is not high, nor will it pose a great threat to the financial position of banks (such as the steel trade incident in the past few years).

The rest is state-owned enterprises, which represent the government's quasi credit, and the balance sheet of the large shareholders of the state is relatively healthy.

Observing several rounds of bull market in A shares will find such a rule: PPI and CPI are relatively low at startup, and the government has adopted interest rate reduction policies, such as May 1996, 2008 12 and November 2014.

When the bull market started in the 2006-2007 year, PPI was at a relatively low point, and at the end it was relatively high.

In the 25 years since the establishment of the stock exchange, there has not been any case where PPI is negative and there is no sign of recovery.

If it is only a simple judgement from the correlation between an indicator and the bear bear, it is still not convincing. After all, the history of the Chinese stock market is very short, and there are not many samples for analysis.

However, the logic behind PPI is still a reference for judging the market.

For example, the rapid peaking of the 2006-2007 year bull market is also related to the overheating of China's economy and the global economy.

Today, China's

It has been negative for three consecutive years, CPI is also at a historical low, deflation pressure is still large, and the global economic downturn is also lingering.

Against this background, the fiscal and monetary policies of the government will be relatively positive and loose, and the encouragement and tolerance of the capital market will also increase.

Especially when the debt burden of the enterprises is generally heavy, financing is difficult, and financing is too expensive, it can solve the problem of financing and reduce the debt ratio of enterprises.

A share market has developed so far, though

Of

The number of households has risen sharply, but the market value of state-owned enterprises is still higher than that of non-state-owned market, and the rise of stock market is conducive to these state-owned enterprises to get out of difficulties.

Therefore, at least until the PPI changes from negative to positive, the economy will obviously become stable.

From this year's perspective, the economy can only stop at the most, and it will be too early to rebound.