Market Trend Analysis Of Nylon Market In The Second Half Year

Since the first half of this year,

The market situation of caprolactam is oscillating and rebounding overall, and the overall trend of the nylon market is stable and slightly weaker.

To a certain extent, the price of nylon chips is supported by the price of pure benzene and caprolactam, and the fluctuation range is not large. The price of nylon fiber is relatively weak in the downturn of demand, FDY70D/24F

The price dropped from 14800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 14500 yuan / ton at the end of 6, and the price of POY85D/24F product dropped from 14800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 13550 yuan / ton at the end of 6, and the price of DTY70D/24F product dropped from 16500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 16000 yuan / ton at the end of 6.

The low price of nylon products also restricts the market rebound of nylon raw material caprolactam.

For the change of nylon Market in the second half of the year, there are people in the industry who predict that the relationship between the supply and demand of nylon chips and nylon fibers may be improved significantly compared with that of last year, when nylon leading enterprises take the lead in reducing production and inventory and G20 summit.

Caprolactam price oscillation rebound

Caprolactam is mainly used to produce polyamide chips by polymerization, and then further processed into nylon 6 fiber and nylon 6 engineering plastics.

In the first half of the year, the caprolactam production capacity was larger than that of the nylon chip, and the supply of the caprolactone device was slightly tight due to the centralized maintenance of the nylon plant.

In terms of price, the overall oscillation of caprolactam prices dropped in January ~2, down from 9450 yuan / ton at the end of January to 9200 yuan / ton in the middle of February.

After mid February, the price of caprolactam began to rise.

In March, as the international crude oil prices bottomed out and the demand for raw materials increased, the market price of caprolactam gradually increased, showing a continuous upward trend.

In April, the price of caprolactam showed a trend of first increase and then decrease. In the first half, the price of caprolactam continued to rise at the highest level of 10800 yuan / ton in the first half year, and the price began to oscillate downward.

In May, the price of caprolactam showed a trend of first decline and then up trend. In the middle of May, the price dropped to 9550 yuan / ton, and the caprolactam market entered a stage of rebound again due to the decrease of supply.

In June, the price of caprolactam continued to rebound and prices were strong.

At present, the price of caprolactam has gone all the way, rising to a high level of 10600 yuan / ton, and it has risen 1000 yuan / ton in two months.

Comparing the price difference between caprolactam and raw benzene, the price difference between caprolactam and pure benzene was mostly maintained at 5000 yuan / ton in the first half. Therefore, the domestic caprolactam factory is basically in a state of deficit.

In terms of capacity, the domestic caprolactam capacity increased by about 200 thousand tons in the first half of the year, which was 100 thousand tons added by Sun Yang Chemical Co., and 100 thousand tons added by China Shenma Refco Group Ltd.

Meanwhile, domestic caprolactam production is about 1 million 8 thousand tons, an increase of 17.2% over the same period last year.

The import of caprolactam in China decreased by 7.24% compared with the same period last year, and the apparent consumption increased by 15.6% over the same period last year.

Nylon Market oscillation downward

Since the first half of the year, the market of nylon products has been oscillating downward.

In January, before the Spring Festival holiday, most of the nylon manufacturers cleaned up, and the price of raw caprolactam continued to decline due to the expected impact of capital intensive recycling and intensive maintenance. The price of nylon FDY70D/24F fell sharply, for example, the price of nylon FDY70D/24F fell from 14800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 14300 yuan / ton near the Spring Festival, and the market was depressed.

In February, with the international crude oil prices declining before and after the Spring Festival, the price of pure benzene also increased slightly, and the market was optimistic about the demand for terminal textiles after the Spring Festival.

The raw materials of caprolactam and nylon chips were stocked in the Spring Festival. After the festival, the price of caprolactam was slightly higher, and the price of nylon slicing was basically stopped. The gloomy and gloomy atmosphere of nylon market was eased.

In March, as the terminal textile enterprises resumed construction and increased procurement, the nylon market began to boom in supply and demand, and the atmosphere was warming up.

Among them, the price index of nylon chips has risen by 1000 yuan / ton from the low point during the Spring Festival, and the rally is relatively fast. The price of nylon fiber is lagging behind, and the price increase of FDY, POY and DTY products of major enterprises is maintained at 300 yuan / ton ~500 yuan / ton, but the rising voice is rising.

In April, as the international crude oil prices were sluggish, the price of caprolactam increased upward, and the terminal textiles were generally not well affected by the new orders for the fabrics. The nylon market continued to ease in March, and the price of caprolactam and nylon products decreased slightly, but not much.

In May, with the price of caprolactam and nylon sliced down, especially the lower part of the product prices fell more than expected, causing market concerns.

Domestic nylon industry began to re appear slightly lower trend, nylon manufacturers generally began to lose money, enterprises limited production increased insured.

In June, the price of nylon Market narrowed down, the demand for downstream market was sluggish, and the start-up rate of nylon manufacturers remained between 7 and ~8.

{page_break}

Reduce or benefit nylon prices rise steadily

How will the price trend of nylon products develop in the second half?

From the raw material perspective, in July ~8, raw material caprolactam market is expected to have 250 thousand tons of new capacity put into operation.

In the second half of the year, the new capacity of nylon chips is expected to be between 200 thousand tons and ~25 million tons. The new capacity of caprolactam will be larger than that of new chips, or will further aggravate the market supply pattern of oversupply.

Insiders said that at present, some caprolactam units in China still have a certain gap with the foreign countries in terms of the advanced technology and product quality, and the production technology needs to be improved. The high-grade products need to be developed or will become the short board for the export of caprolactam.

The downstream situation is that many textile enterprises have opened factories to the United States, Southeast Asia and other countries and regions. "Going out" has become an important way for domestic textile enterprises to seek breakthroughs in the new competition pattern.

Therefore, the industry suggested that the development of caprolactam enterprises in the future is to enhance the quality of products, and pay attention to the development of materials processing.

Judging from the market situation of nylon spinning industry, the performance of nylon market is still in the doldrums, and the average operating rate of the industry is about 70%~75%.

As the actual demand of downstream users is still low, the production and marketing of nylon products still have pressure, so in the coming 3 quarter, the nylon enterprise may be able to reverse the loss situation through further reduction.

In fact, in May ~6 months, domestic nylon leading enterprises such as Jinjiang science and technology, Heng Shen group, Xinhui Mei Da, Huating shares and so on have begun to carry out a small reduction.

In addition, the upcoming G20 summit in Hangzhou will have a certain impact on the nylon industry.

Some experts predict that during the G20 summit in Hangzhou, the production capacity of nylon around Hangzhou is about 1 million tons. When the total overhaul is maintained (the remaining cases remain unchanged), the operating rate of the industry will drop to about 64%, which is basically the same as that in the 3 quarter of 2015, which is at 57%~65%.

Therefore, after a half month centralized maintenance of these enterprises, the nylon industry can basically go stockpiles.

At that time, the demand and supply pattern of nylon chips and nylon yarn will be similar to that of last year, which will obviously improve. This will help stabilize the nylon market.