The First Time This Year, Volume And Price Rise, The Property Market Is Out Of "Haze"?

The real estate market is rapidly warming up.

In June 15th, the Statistics Bureau released data showing that the sales volume and sales volume of the national commercial housing were lower than that of the same period last year in May, but the monthly sales scale is still rising in 2020. In May, the national real estate sales area increased for the first time, representing an increase of 9.7%. Sales volume increased for two consecutive months, up 14% in May.

Another set of data released on the same day showed that in 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with rising house prices continued to increase in May, and the price of new houses in the one or two and three tier cities increased more than in April.

Although all cities in the country can not be counted, the coverage of the 70 large and medium-sized cities and the large volume of the market still make them very representative. Overall, the real estate market in May was called "volume and price rise" by many organizations.

"In May 2020, the overall efforts to promote epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development achieved positive results, and the production and living order continued to recover. Housing demand was further released. The real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities was generally stable and prices rose slightly." Kong Peng, chief statistician of the city Bureau of the National Bureau of statistics, interpreted the market in May.

Volume price rise and plate rotation

The real estate market began to rise significantly in the middle of 3. In April, the total area of commercial housing sales was 119 million 950 thousand square meters, reaching 98% of the same period last year. In May, the area of commercial housing sales was 147 million 300 thousand square meters, an increase of 22.8%, an increase of 14% over the same period last year, the first time over the same period last year.

The warming of the market in May was seen as a reflection of the overall recovery of the market. Overall, due to the larger gap in the previous period, the sales area and sales in the first May of this year are still down two digits compared with the same period last year. But most agencies believe that according to the current trend of recovery, the prospect of market recovery is still worth looking forward to.

Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that in June, the housing enterprises sprint for half year's performance, will speed up the push plate and intensify marketing efforts, and the total sales area will continue to narrow.

As the volume of transactions rises, house prices continue to rise. In May of this year, the price of new houses in 57 of 70 large and medium-sized cities increased, the number was the highest since August last year. The price of second-hand housing in 41 cities is rising, the highest since last September.

From the perspective of city level, the price of new houses in the 4 tier cities increased by 0.7%, or 0.5 percentage points. The price of new houses in 31 second tier cities rose 0.6%, or 0.1 percentage points, while the price of new houses in 35 three cities increased by 0.7%, or by 0.1 percentage points.

Over the same period, the price of second-hand housing is generally lower than that of new houses. However, due to more marketization, the price changes of second-hand housing are considered to be more valuable.

In May this year, Beijing and Shenzhen ranked 1.8% in the top two of the second hand housing market with the increase of 1.6% and two respectively. The second tier cities such as Chengdu, Yinchuan and Ningbo followed closely. In the drop list, Mudanjiang led by a 1.5% decline, and Taiyuan, Sanya and Zhengzhou also had a larger decline.

The rise of second-hand housing prices in Beijing has stimulated the new school district housing policy. But Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute believes that even if this factor is omitted, the price changes of second-hand housing still reflect the characteristics of plate rotation, that is, the aggregation of housing prices in the first tier cities and strong second tier cities will increase, while the cities with lower house prices will be dominated by weak second tier cities and three line cities.

"Compared to demand for overdraft of the three or four line cities, a better urban second tier city, the property market has a strong performance." The agency pointed out.

Market rebound is limited.

In terms of other indicators, real estate is one of the industries that have recovered rapidly from the epidemic. In the 1-5 month of this year, the investment in real estate development in the whole country was 45920 billion yuan, down only 0.3% from the same period last year. Compared with fixed assets investment (excluding farmers), the investment enthusiasm of the real estate industry is higher than that of 6.3%.

In the 1-2 month of this year, investment in real estate development in the whole country dropped by 16.3% compared to the same period last year. In other words, the index dropped by 16 percentage points in just three months.

58 Zhang Bo, the dean of Anju Real Estate Research Institute, thinks that the heating up of the sales side usually stimulates the investment side's performance. Before May, investment, land use, new construction and other indicators had varying degrees of warming, to a large extent, from this stimulus.

The relevant person in charge of a large housing enterprise pointed out to the twenty-first Century economic report that there are two reasons that can not be ignored. First, many cities offer preferential policies in the areas of land development and development, and encourage enterprises to invest. At the same time, housing enterprises at the beginning of the year and the development budget is usually more adequate, just to implement investment.

Due to the better quality of the land, the housing enterprises' expenditure reached 242 billion 900 million yuan in the first half of May this year, an increase of 7.1% over the same period last year. In many hot cities, the competition for land is fierce. There are lots of land transactions with high price and high price.

Second, from the development cycle of real estate projects, the projects started at the beginning of the year are expected to form sales in the year to meet the demand for income and money back this year. Therefore, housing enterprises in the first half of the development investment enthusiasm generally higher.

In addition, with the recovery of sales and the reduction of financing costs, the housing enterprises' capital situation is improving. 1-5 months, real estate development enterprises in place of 62654 billion yuan, down 6.1% compared with the same period last year, the decline in the past three months has continued to narrow.

Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute believes that the comprehensive performance of the above indicators shows that "the real estate industry has basically got rid of the epidemic impact and returned to normal." So how long can this "normal state" last?

Shanghai Yi Ju Real Estate Research Institute pointed out that in the local government's policy support and market inertia, the real estate market will continue to warm up in 6 months, and it is expected that all indicators will continue to improve. But this year, regulators have repeatedly stressed that "housing is not speculation", indicating that the market regulation policy is difficult to relax in the short term, so the market is hard to expect a rebound.

At the same time, "foreign trade, tourism, catering, services and other related industries, there is a downward trend in the income of residents, to a certain extent, will curb the demand for home purchase."

The housing market also believes that unless the policy level of stimulation increases, otherwise the market rebound will be very limited. "Before the outbreak of the epidemic, the property market has experienced three consecutive sales of" big year ", and demand has been released in large numbers, especially in the three or four line cities.

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