Monetary Tightening, PTA Downstream Pressure Increased

       周一，上證指數(shù)跌破3000關(guān)口，包括PTA在內(nèi)的大多數(shù)商品出現(xiàn)調(diào)整。我們認(rèn)為中短期內(nèi)PTA很難有大的表現(xiàn)，仍以偏弱振蕩為主，更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間來(lái)看，PTA選擇向下的可能性更大。操作上，短線交易為主，逢較大幅度反彈可嘗試長(zhǎng)線沽空。

PTA is lucrative, cost pushing or limited.

Last Friday, the international crude oil station stabilized 80 points and pushed slightly upward. Raw material PX spot rebounded from 56 US dollars to 1020 US dollars per ton and returned to the US $1000 mark, so that the spread of PX and MX also rebounded to 120 US dollars / ton, still below the reasonable price difference of 180 US dollars / ton, indicating that PX production enterprises are still in a state of deficit.

Since last year's four sets of PX installations started in the Middle East and two sets of PX installations in the Middle East before and after the end of the year, the supply of domestic PX is slightly larger than demand. Whether the PX enterprises will reduce production or price will affect the price of PX to a large extent.

At present, the supply of PX at home and abroad mainly depends on the petrochemical refinery. The operating rate of the refinery largely determines the supply of PX. In other words, the sales status of gasoline and diesel can indirectly affect the supply of PX. Taking into account that the consumption of gasoline and diesel in the aftermarket is gradually warming, the refinery's ability to significantly reduce the operating rate is not great.

In addition to the possible rise of PX price on the supply and demand side, crude oil will also drive the PX price upward from the cost side. Judging from the current trend of crude oil, WTI crude oil is in the upstream stage of the 70-85 US dollar / barrel interval oscillation. Whether it can break through in the later stage depends on whether the US economic data match with each other. Once the breakthrough is made, it will bring greater impetus to PX and even PTA.

Since the end of the Spring Festival, the gross profit margin of domestic PTA has risen from about 1000 yuan per ton to 1300-1800 yuan per ton. The price quoted by the mainstream PTA supplier in March is 8200 yuan / ton, and the PX settlement price in March in East Asia is 1020 US dollars / ton. If we estimate the gross profit of PTA contract goods, it is expected to reach 1500 yuan / ton.

At the same time, the upstream PX suppliers of PTA are in a state of loss. The profits of downstream polyester enterprises are generally, and the terminal textile and garment enterprises still maintain the traditional low profit state. It can be said that the profit of the whole polyester industry chain is mainly concentrated on the link of PTA production. After that, of course, the gross profit of PTA producers is oscillating downward, and the gross margin of PTA spot is 1320 yuan / ton last weekend.

Last weekend, PX spot continued to rebound to 1036 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea, MX dropped slightly from 5 US dollars to 895 US dollars / ton, and the two price difference rose to 141 US dollars / ton from the previous 120 US dollars / ton, still lower than the 180 US dollars / ton that PX manufacturers wanted.

Assuming that the price of MX basically remains unchanged, PX rises by 40 US dollars per ton, and PX and MX reach a reasonable price difference. Then the cost of PTA will increase by 215 yuan per ton. Compared with the current high gross profit of PTA, the cost is totally within the digestible range. Therefore, we believe that the cost of PTA or PX will be limited.

　　貨幣緊縮，PTA下游壓力加大

Downstream of PTA, both polyester enterprises and textile and garment enterprises are capital intensive enterprises. At the same time, the terminal textile and garment enterprises are also labor-intensive enterprises, and most of them are small and medium-sized enterprises with credit difficulties.

Although the shortage of migrant workers has been basically alleviated, we also noticed that the cost of labor of some textile and garment enterprises and polyester enterprises increased by about 10%. For the textile and garment enterprises with an average profit of only 3%-6%, the increase of labor costs is more obvious.

At the same time, in spite of the economic crisis in 2009, China's textile and clothing dependence declined, but still about 40%. With the extension of the industrial chain, foreign demand still has a large degree of demand for China's PTA.

According to the data released by the General Administration of customs, China's textile and apparel exports totaled 28 billion 242 million US dollars in 1-2 months in 2010, a sharp increase of 28.98% over the same period last year.

Among them, the total export of textiles was 10 billion 159 million US dollars, an increase of 39.47% over the same period last year. The total export of garments and accessories reached US $18 billion 83 million, an increase of 23.75% compared with the same period last year. The total export of footwear products was US $5 billion 314 million, up 23.6% over the same period last year.

However, the data rebounded strongly in February, and the growth rate reached 89% in the same month. The low base is the main reason, and partly thanks to the opening up of new ASEAN markets.

Although China's textile and apparel industry has opened up the ASEAN Free Trade Area in 2010, the market has become the third largest export market after the European Union and the United States, but the three markets are mainly based on the US dollar.

The appreciation of the renminbi against the US dollar will wipe out the profits of most small and medium-sized textile and garment enterprises. After the festival, the US dollar price has risen from 6.8271 to 6.8262, the highest level in 9 months.

Although Premier Wen emphasized once again that the valuation of the renminbi is reasonable and opposed the forced appreciation of the renminbi, at present, the gradual appreciation of the renminbi has gradually become the consensus of the market, which will lead to an increase in the pressure of the latter part of the export textile and garment enterprises, especially the pressure from the medium and long orders.

In February, CPI went up to 2.7% unexpectedly, pushing up the reserve requirement rate and anticipation of raising interest rates again.

The expectation of monetary tightening not only expanded the stock market atmosphere, but also increased the pressure on the whole commodity market, including PTA, as well as the pressure of PTA downstream enterprises including polyester enterprises and textile and garment enterprises.

In the long run, the pressure from downstream is expected to be pmitted along the polyester industry chain to PTA. If there is no hedging of upstream costs, the huge profits of PTA enterprises will now be partially converted into a downward kinetic energy.

Of course, in the medium to short term, April is the peak season for PTA's traditional consumption, and demand is expected to improve after the market.

April will also usher in the traditional Canton Fair, which will be concerned about the signing of textile enterprises orders.

　　中短期PTA供需格局或有改善

3 from mid late April to April, the domestic and East Asian region will enter the centralized maintenance period, with a period of one week to a month, with a total capacity of about 2 million tons.