Globalization Will Pay More Attention To Cost And Efficiency. "Made In China" Must Enhance Competitiveness.

In the context of the general economic slowdown in the world's major economies, China International in 2012.

The annual conference and international trade development forum was held in Shanghai recently.

The theme of the forum is "consolidating the status of a major foreign trade and promoting the process of strong foreign trade".

Some participants thought that although the layout of the global industrial chain has undergone subtle changes, China's absolute superiority as the "world factory" has not yet been shaken.

Under the new situation of global competition focusing on cost and efficiency, China's manufacturing is changing from "quantity" to "quality".

Pei Changhong, director of the finance and Trade Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences,

The "world factory" still has an absolute advantage.

Manufacturing industry "southeast flight"

At present, the pfer of some industries in the world manufacturing industry to some cheaper labor economy has aroused concern.

The pfer trend of enterprises and electronic enterprises is very obvious. Foreign investment originally invested in China has begun to pfer to ASEAN countries.

Like Nike sports shoes, in 2000, China produced 40% of the world's Nike shoes, the world's first.

Vietnam's share at that time accounted for only 13%. By 2009, both sides accounted for 36% of the world's Nike sports shoes. In 2010, Vietnam replaced China as the world's largest producer of Nike shoes.

At the same time, some manufacturing industries in the developed coastal areas of Southeast China also showed signs of pferring to ASEAN.

Guangdong is the "world factory" of the electronics and IT industry. The production of computer accessories accounts for 60% of the world, and the electronic supporting capacity accounts for 90% of the world's total.

But in recent years, electronic enterprises have also shifted to ASEAN. These enterprises have not turned to the Midwest of China.

At the same time, international capital flows more to Southeast Asian countries.

Since 2000, Vietnam's manufacturing output has increased at a rate of 11%.

In the 2012 joint China World Trade Center conference survey, Indonesia and Thailand rose significantly in the ranking of the most popular host countries.

Under the situation that wage costs and production costs continue to rise in China, the competitiveness of ASEAN's manufacturing sector continues to grow.

According to the world investment report 2012, foreign direct investment inflows to Southeast Asia in 2011 amounted to US $117 billion, an increase of 26% over the previous year, while China's growth rate in the same period was only 8%.

Manufacturing industry is difficult to return to the US

Some developed countries certainly want to shift the manufacturing industry back to China.

For example, the United States clearly put forward the policy objectives of "re industrialization" and "revitalizing the manufacturing industry".

The US labor structure does not support this policy objective.

That is to say, the posts at both ends are growing faster, while the middle level jobs that require certain skills are reduced.

With the deepening of globalization, a large number of jobs in the trading sector have left the low educational community excluded from the new international division of labor.

Although the United States still has the highest level of university education in the world and continues to occupy a leading position in the field of technological innovation, the polarization of the labor market is the rapid expansion of industries with high demand for human capital and low demand for human capital, while the middle industry is in a state of atrophy. Many young people do not go to university or even high school enrollment rate is greatly reduced, and the overall level of human capital has declined.

For example, the average educational age of the population aged 25 and over in the United States has decreased from 13.22 in 2000 to 12.45 years in 2010, and the ratio of the median age to the same index in 173 countries in the world has decreased correspondingly.

So far, in the United States, there has been no acceptance of both front-line remuneration and general skilled workers. How does the United States accept the need for the return of manufacturing industry?

Gaining competitiveness in higher value chains

China's manufacturing industry will not be pferred back to the developed industrialized countries.

However, changes in China's labor costs also show that China's manufacturing industry will increasingly encounter direct competition with developed countries in the process of climbing the value chain.

Therefore, the proposition of maintaining the competitiveness of manufacturing industry is in fact equivalent to gaining competitiveness in a higher value chain.

This new competitiveness depends more on labor quality or human capital.

After the "labor shortage" and wage rise in China in 2004, it is expected that in 2013, the demographic dividend turning point of the working age population will stop growing and the dependency ratio of population will cease to decline. The characteristics of unlimited supply of labor will disappear.

At the same time, many other developing countries are lagging behind China in their demographic pition and have to go through the process of increasing the working age population.

If the potential demographic dividend of these countries can be converted into abundant and cheap labor resources, they will have the conditions to undertake labor-intensive manufacturing industries.

Made in China has absolute advantages.

The 11 new countries that are considered to have potential for economic growth and are related to demographic dividend are Korea, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Philippines, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Iran, Vietnam, Turkey, Egypt, and India is the 12 country.

In 2010, compared with the 12 countries, China accounted for 38% of the total 15~64 of the working age population.

If India does not include the world's second largest populous country, China will account for 55% of all working age population.

Even by 2020, the proportion of working age population in China is higher than that in many countries.

This determines that these countries are unlikely to replace China as the world's manufacturing center.

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The supply of effective labour in India is insufficient.

Even if a smaller proportion of China's labor-intensive industries move to one or some countries, it will cause a strong increase in the labor demand of the relevant countries, resulting in insufficient supply of labor, and thus the competitiveness of the industry will be reduced because of the rise in wages.

In recent years, in some countries that try to undertake China's labor-intensive industries, the trend of labor shortage and wage increase is very obvious.

Taking India as an example, although the size of the population and the size of the working age population are very large, but due to the low education level of the workers, the average education age of the population over 25 in 2010 is only 4.4 years, and many people are not competent for the job requirements.

Therefore, in fact, the supply of effective labor in India is not sufficient.

This explains India's rise in wages for the first 10 consecutive years in Asia.

The key is whether the division of labor quality and value chain is reasonable.

Labor supply not only depends on absolute quantity and relative quantity, but also whether workers' skills meet their job requirements.

That is to say, the quantity of labor and human capital determine the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry.

Compared with the average education age of the population over the age of 25, compared with 11 countries (excluding India), only Mexico and Philippines have higher education years than China, which is about 13~14 months higher.

More countries are much less educated than average in China, such as Bangladesh, which is 33 months lower than China.

If we calculate the product of the total population of 25 and above and the average education age per capita, as the total amount of human capital in a country, China will account for over 50% of the 12 countries in 2010.

The total amount of human capital in China still has great advantages.

According to the prediction, the average age of education for Chinese people aged 25 and over will reach 8.63 years in 2020. The total amount of human capital in China will still account for 45% of the total 12 countries.

This prediction has two meanings: first, the total amount of human capital in China in the next 10 years will still maintain enormous advantages.

Labour-intensive

A certain share will be pferred to other developing countries. However, the position of China as a manufacturer of such products can not be completely replaced or even replaced to a large extent. Secondly, the key to China's status as a manufacturing power is human capital accumulation or the speed and quality of educational development.

Demographic pition is an irreversible process. The first demographic dividend will eventually disappear, but the quality of labor can be accelerated. The second demographic dividend can be unlimited.

While the demographic dividend is about to disappear, there is still potential for the central and western regions to tap.

From the trend, wages will rise faster in the coastal areas than in the central and western regions in the future.

Wang Xinkui, Shanghai WTO affairs consulting center:

Globalization will pay more attention to cost and efficiency.

In the past 20 years, what changes have taken place in globalization?

First, the Soviet Union collapsed in the 90s of last century, and almost all the countries that had been through the other countries and the centralized planned economic system of the Soviet Union were involved in the process of economic globalization dominated by the western developed countries. Secondly, from the beginning of 80s of last century, with the accession to the WTO in 2001 as a symbol, China has been fully integrated into the global economy as a super large developing economy that has already stepped onto the industrialization path. Thirdly, after the global financial crisis, China's economic growth pattern has rapidly spread and been replicated worldwide.

At this stage, the shortage of resources is becoming a basic factor affecting the development trend of economic globalization.

It is mainly manifested in the following aspects: first, labor resources are unstable; labor force growth in developed countries and some emerging countries is slowing down; aging is obvious; most of the new labor force comes from the least developed areas with low productivity; the urbanization of the developing countries leads to the extremely unstable supply of labor market; second, the rise of energy prices, the depletion of fossil energy reserves on land, the high cost of unconventional fossil energy exploitation, and the uncertain commercial application prospect of renewable energy; third, the environmental capacity is reaching the limit, the water resources crisis is approaching, and the emission of greenhouse gas is increasing, and the environmental deficit makes the cost of growth more than that of income.

Therefore, at this stage, cost and efficiency competition is the prerequisite for achieving sustainable growth.

In this century and beyond, the service manufacturing revolution will create prosperity for the world, but it may not provide employment opportunities.

The global economy will shift from "production prosperity" to "distribution" prosperity.

In the face of major changes in the process of economic globalization, China can not be divorced from this development trend and remain independent. It will continue to maintain its traditional international competitiveness based on massive consumption of resources.

Therefore, sooner or later, China will face or is facing the problem of how to shift from "productive prosperity" to "distribution prosperity".

For a long time to come, the liberalization of trade in services will be greatly promoted under the impetus of the service manufacturing revolution spontaneous forces in the process of Global trade liberalization.

From the external international environment, this time we integrate into the new economic globalization will have a higher starting point, a shorter distance and more opportunities.

But the key is whether we dare to challenge ourselves and move our perspective to a broader and more imaginative space.

Yu Lixin, director of the service trade and WTO Research Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences,

China's competitiveness in service trade needs to be strengthened.

China is at the critical stage of industrialization and the key pitional period towards service economy. In 2016, the proportion of China's service trade will exceed that of industry for the first time.

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China's current economic development should be in the period of pition from industrial economy to service economy.

According to the "China industrialization process report" released by the Academy of Social Sciences in October 25, 2012, the entire "fifteen" and "11th Five-Year" period of China's rapid leap over the middle stage of industrialization, the national economy maintained steady and rapid growth, the industrial structure was constantly optimized, the level of Urbanization continued to improve, and the gap between East and west gradually narrowed, and it has entered the late industrialization stage.

In 2012, China's per capita gross domestic product (GDP) will exceed US $5500 ~6000 US dollars and enter middle-income countries.

According to the international experience of the formation and development of the service economy, China's economic development level has reached the starting point of the initial formation of the service economy.

However, the service industry has not yet developed into the leading industry of the national economy. In 2011, the added value of China's service industry accounted for 43.1% of the GDP, which has not yet reached the basic level initially formed by the service economy. This shows that our country has a considerable distance from the pformation of the service economy.

Therefore, we can think that China's economic development is in the late stage of industrialization and to the pformation stage of service-oriented economy. Manufacturing needs the development and integration of service industry to achieve the strategic goal of pformation and upgrading.

In the context of the sustained growth of China's total economic volume, the deficit of service trade has been expanding from 5 billion 900 million US dollars in 2001 to 55 billion 200 million US dollars in 2011. Meanwhile, in 2011, China's service exports dropped from 32.4% in 2010 to 7%, while imports still maintained a relatively fast growth rate of 23.3%. The deficit is expected to increase further. This shows that China's service trade is insufficient, and the efficiency, quality, diversification and paction costs of services are hard to meet domestic demand. Besides, the competitiveness of trade index is declining, and the competitiveness of trade in services needs to be strengthened.

Combined with the current development of China's service trade, we have basically predicted the development trend and strategic objectives of China's service trade during the period of 12th Five-Year.

First of all, the total volume of China's service trade will account for 7%~9% of world trade in services during the "12th Five-Year" period, reaching 5.2% at present. Secondly, in terms of trade structure, the total volume of China's total trade in services will account for about 18% of China's total trade volume, which is currently 10.3%, and the trade structure will continue to optimize. Once again, in terms of revenue and expenditure structure, the deficit in major trade in services will be significantly improved, and the trend of deficit widening will be fundamentally reversed.

Finally, in the structure of service trade projects, we should form a system of service trade items with perfect system, reasonable allocation and strong competitiveness during the "12th Five-Year" period.

In general, it is necessary to promote export of services, expand service industry opening to the outside world, and increase the proportion of service trade in foreign trade.

In stabilizing and expanding traditional services such as tourism, pportation and labor services

At the same time, efforts should be made to expand new service exports such as culture, Chinese medicine, software and information services, commerce and circulation, financial insurance and so on.

We should vigorously develop service outsourcing and build a number of offshore and offshore service outsourcing strategic bases.

We should expand the opening up of financial and logistics services, and steadily open the fields of education, medical treatment, sports, culture and other fields, and introduce high-quality resources to improve the level of internationalization of the service industry.