China's Container Transport Market Has Expanded By &Nbsp, And Has Not Really Bottomed Out Yet.

Introduction: subject to foreign trade The impact of the downturn, China's container transport ahead of the "cold winter", the shipping company expects the annual peak season market ends flat. As the traditional off-season is coming, market participants believe that there is a further downward trend, and the freight rate of the container shipping market has not really bottomed out yet. Economic Observer network reporter Kang Yi affected by the decline in foreign trade, China's container transport entered the "cold winter" ahead of schedule, the ship company expects the annual peak season market ends flat. As the traditional off-season is coming, market participants believe that there is a further downward trend, container shipping. market Freight rates haven't really bottomed out yet.

Customs statistics show that in October, foreign trade exports amounted to 157 billion 490 million US dollars, up 15.9% from the same period last year, but 169 billion 700 million from last month. dollar It dropped by 7.3%, and the rate of decline was obvious.

Under the harsh environment of slowing global economic growth, decreasing trade demand, rising fuel costs and declining freight rates, liner companies began to pull out lines, narrow the scope of operation, and put in place emergency measures such as shelving capacity.

Transport capacity shelved

Recently, some liner companies have begun or are planning to withdraw from some main lines, such as Europe and America. Among them, 7 routes were abolished from 4 to September in the west coast of the United States, and 4 routes were abolished before the end of the year, which combined 11 lines. The new cancelled flights account for 6% of the recent capacity of the East and west coast of the United States.

At the same time, capacity shelving is also accelerating. According to Alphaliner research company, as of the end of September, 156 container ships with a total capacity of 335 thousand boxes were idle, but at the end of August, the figure was only 100 TEU, which was a net increase of 120 thousand TEU in one month, and is expected to exceed 500 thousand mark capacity at the end of this year. When the financial crisis was the most difficult, the figure reached 1 million 500 thousand marked capacity.

In October, China's export container transport prices continued to slide, and the decline began to expand, and freight rates hit a new low in the year. China's export containers rose slightly in addition to Southeast Asian routes, and the rest of the routes dropped to varying degrees. Among them, the Korean line and the European line dropped the largest, and some European routes dropped to a minimum of 500 US dollars /TEU, the lowest price in 09 years in August. Compared with the peak period of 2100 US dollars per box, it dropped 76%. At the beginning of this year, the freight rate between Asia and Northern Europe decreased by 54%, while the freight rate from Asia to the United States dropped by 24%.

Chen Yi, a senior shipping expert, said that due to the coming of the traditional off-season and a further downward trend in the market, the freight rate of the container shipping market has not really bottomed out yet.

Although the volume of transport has increased, some liner companies even have two digit growth. However, due to rising fuel costs and falling freight rates, container shipping industry is facing losses in the whole industry.

Downturn expansion

It is worth noting that in the market downturn, some liner companies are still looking forward to the global economy, expanding market share as the company's primary business goal and implementing low-cost expansion. At the beginning of this year, Maersk bought a huge fortune of 10 18 thousand TEU (standard boxes). Mediterranean shipping and other liner companies followed suit, adding a large quantity of 8 thousand TEU above.

Chen Yi said that whether the move is wise or not needs to be tested by market development. But if the market is unanimously favored by all of us, and there is a big uncertainty about global economic growth, then the downturn period of container shipping market may be extended indefinitely.

According to the 14 forecast of the Baltic Shipping Board (Bimco), by the end of this year, the new container ship with a total capacity of 1 million 300 thousand boxes will be put into the market, that is, the capacity of the global container fleet will increase by 8.7%, exceeding the demand by 2%. Because of the oversupply of capacity, the capacity of 1 million containers of container ships will be idle or docking, and the market supply and demand will eventually be balanced. The data also show that the current market holds 57 billion US dollars in new ship orders, and in the next 4 years, 4 million 500 thousand additional capacity will be added. At present, the total capacity of the global container ships is 15 million. The new capacity is approaching 1/3 of the total size, and the pressure of transport capacity is very huge.